Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Macro: Powell's Last Stand; AI Is Creating Employment

Markets: S&P 500 at 8500 in 2026?; The Superbowl Of Earnings; Meta: The CapEx Panic Is The Opportunity; Microsoft: The OpenAI Discount; Google: The Best House on the Street; The Second-Order Effect of GLP-1s; OpenAI's Growth Problem; SEMIS VS THE WORLD

Lumida Curations: Jensen Huang Says AI Does Most Of Their Coding; Paul Tudor On Are We In A Bubble?; Bearish Sentiment Creates Opportunity

I was at Uncorrelated Alts PR26 in Puerto Rico recently.

Here's what I shared with the room.

I think we're in one of the most target-rich environments I've seen in years.

Prices are rising across the board. Oil, wheat, corn, gasoline, housing. 

In that environment, real assets win. Quality businesses that can pass thru inflation win.

We are also seeing the rise of AI. That will create a concentrated set of winners, and a big pile of losers. (That includes in wealth management. See www.lumidatribe.com if you want to be a part of our vision for disrupting the category).

On the private investment side, we remain focused on few themes:

1) Defense technology. The shift from aircraft carriers to autonomous drones is already underway. Current global conflicts have proven it. These machines are faster, cheaper, and harder to counter than anything legacy defense can field.

We invested in Shield AI in Q4. They create Autonomous Flight Drone systems for governments. We’re pleased to see a mark-up already.

This is one of the select few areas in venture capital that is not a bubble, and where we see the potential for attractive returns. Be sure to get on www.lumidadeals.com for our next deal — that’s the only way to get access to such deals if you are an accredited investor or QP.

2) Senior living care.

This strikes us as another no brainer opportunity. Companies in the public markets are trading at 100x trailing PE. We are looking for a roll-up play in private markets with a clear path to public markets liquidity in a few years.

While Robinhood is trying to sell Databricks and other SaaS stocks in their venture fund at non-mark to market valuations, we are looking for mispriced assets in secular growth trends.

April 29th was Jerome Powell's last press conference as Fed Chair.

What’s our report card on Powell? We admire his focus on independence. The guy has grit. How can you forget the ‘Close the f*ing door comment?’ too?

However, he oversaw the decision to unlease trillions in QE during Covid.

That led to house price inflation.

It’s unfortunate that the next generation is turning to government for more solutions and blaming capitalism for bad policy.

On inflation, Powell says it "is kind of misbehaving."

Total PCE rose 3.5% over twelve months through March. Core came in at 3.2%. 

Powell on rising oil prices: "It hasn't even peaked yet. And I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on tariffs before we even thought about reducing rates." 

Powell flagged the impact of higher prices will spread: "You can see it already in airfares. But you may see it in many other places — things that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum. And people are going to start to feel that." 

Remarkably, this rate decision had four dissents — the widest split since October 1992. 

Governor Miran wanted a cut.

Kashkari, Logan, and Hammack supported the hold but wanted to strip the easing bias from the statement entirely, arguing a hike is now as likely as a cut.

Remember, we wrote about “Rate Cut Remorse” in January. You can see it more clearly now. 

The bond market has already moved past the committee's deliberations. 

Two-year Treasury yields are sitting 25 basis points above the Fed Funds rate — 3.89% vs. 3.64%. 

That gap tells you markets don't expect cuts for at least 24 months. Not that, the economy needs any.

Warsh is walking in with rising inflation, growing dissent, and Trump’s influence to cut. The job isn’t going to be easy.

Maintaining Overweight on Energy & Materials

We do believe an overweight to energy and certain materials is a good idea.

Countries are waking up to their energy security and energy independence needs.

That also includes a need for more solar. Notice how solar stocks are moving higher - something we noted recently as a possibility.

We picked up Solar Edge recently, although a number of solar and energy related names can do well.

Remember the oil field services company FTI? We wrote about that after the Venezuela action. That’s another way to be on sovereign demand for energy infrastructure (including their peer group).

The stock has continued to do well. We made the mistake of selling this when we saw energy names to heated, but got back in the name in recent weeks.

Stock Pick: The TradeDesk

I’ve been saying for weeks there are significant bargins out there.

I could easily write 5 or 6 ideas here… But the newsletter would get too long. Give us feedback if you want more ideas, and less macro/thematics.

Here’s a thesis: The Trade Desk. We have been buying it over the last few weeks.

This name is caught up in the SaaS Apocalype...but they have a network which AI can’t easily displace.

And they are cutting a deal with OpenAI.

Remember, these AI LLMs need a source of ad revenue and don’t have that type of ad tech.

The CEO also purchased $150 MM of his own stock just before news of the OpenAI and Trade desk deal. We found that insight on the www.lumidainvest.com app!

The stock is at 11x forward PE with 40%+ EPS growth for each of the next three years ahead. That strikes me as mindbogglingly cheap.

Here’s the chart. It’s ugly as hell.

Here’s the trailing valuation. This went from a darling stock to plumbing low-teens multiples.

We are seeing more signs of stability in AI Apocalype linked names: Go Daddy, Fiserv, Adobe, Hubspot, etc (all names we picked up during the locust storm) are acting better.

There are also momentum ideas out there - including ideas not in semis and industrials - and we’ll share those next week.

Another name we like - in biotech - is Collegium Pharmaceutical.

Their forward PE is 4.7x. Unlike most biotechs, they make money.

Collegium is a cash-flowing specialty pharma trying to pivot from opioids to ADHD - cheap if it works, value trap if it doesn’t.

This is a cash compounder trading like a melting ice cube. If ADHD offsets the decline in their core opioid business, multiple expands + earnings grow.

We put this in the ‘asymmetric opportunity’ bucket. It’s a cheap bet with a potential right tail. Because it is a biotech, a lower position weight is more appropriate here (maybe 1% or less)

Labor market reports came in strong this week. Iitial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969. 

Repeat after me… No recession!

Layoff activity was remarkably subdued, and continuing claims continued to decline. 

Continuing claims and layoffs act as reliable leading indicators for the labor market, and their improving metrics signal unemployment rate might fall further.

Consumer confidence confirms the picture. 

The Conference Board's April survey showed 80.2% of respondents said jobs were either available or plentiful.

Only 19.8% said jobs are hard to get. These were solid improvements from previous readings. 

When four in five Americans feel confident about job availability, you know the demand will continue to strengthen. We have seen it in the latest bank earnings. 

Now, here are some data points that make the improving labor statistics more interesting. 

Indeed job postings for software developers have risen YoY, and are now at highs relative to overall job posts. 

Funny enough, the AI-replaces-jobs narrative tells us software developers will be the first to lose their job. But, we aren’t seeing that.

We need engineers to implement AI workflows. Lumida as 9 engineers. They all use AI to build the Lumida Invest app. We’re seeing it first hand.

Job postings for engineers continue to rise.

We predicted this in our newsletter, titled "Travis Kalanick is Back”. 

AI raises the value of the worker who knows how to use it. Productivity gains increase wages.

AI is also helping new businesses formation.

Applications to start new businesses are climbing to record highs. 

This is bullish for the American economy. Small businesses are the major driver of labor force growth. And, the economy is becoming more nimbler and focused.

Mass is moving from the center to the edges.

AI has reduced costs for starting a company — functions that used to require a full team can now be handled by a founder with the right tools. 

Lower barriers to entry means more businesses. More businesses means more demand for workers. 

That's a structural labor demand tailwind that is compounding quietly in the background.

The labor market is the load-bearing wall of this economy right now. This is keeping consumer spending intact and credit clean despite elevated rates. 

And it's what's keeping the Fed's hand stayed — a labor market this tight, with inflation misbehaving, is precisely the environment where cutting rates would be reckless. 

The hawks on the committee know it. The bond market knows it.

The S&P 500 is making new highs. The reason is simple: earnings are doing the same.

Last week, we noted how EPS estimates for the S&P are 19%+.

This is a hot, hot, hot economy. (The left tail risk is inflation or a Fed that goes on a hiking cycle.) 

And, what if I tell you that 19% EPS growth number may be an under-estimate!

Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon all reported beat-and-raise quarters. (We discuss their earnings in the next section.) Those firms are drivers of EPS growth.

The same hyperscalers that were supposedly ground zero for AI capex risk came through with strong numbers and raised forward guidance. 

Most of the earnings growth is coming from technology, which still trades at reasonable valuations relative to that growth rate. 

(Here’s XLK’s PEG chart over the last 5Y. The discount is as clear as it gets.) 

I expect sidelined institutions to get back in the market and snap up these liquid names.

87% of companies in the S&P 500 have projected a positive revenue growth, while 83% are projecting earnings to rise as well. 

Earnings breadth is on track to reach 90% for both revenue and earnings over the rest of this year. That's exactly what’s observed in previous bull markets. 

Tactically, markets are looking strong as well. 

Nasdaq 10-day breadth thrust triggered at a 10-year high. This signal has historically preceded forward 3M average returns of ~8% and 12M returns of+35%.

Markets are seeing strength across most sectors, and we still have dry powder waiting. 

In the super tactical near term, we’d expect some kind of red flush day(s) early this week, like we’ve seen in recent weeks, but we see dips as buyable.

On industrials, these have continued to crank higher, although Teradyne dropped 20% on earnigns day (recovered half losses since). But, when I look at a name like Caterpillar and see these valuations, I’d rather act like a prudent investor and skip these pricey industrial names:

Industrials are cyclical.

Hedge funds are still not fully in - their positioning is tracking at the 80th percentile, suggesting more room to run.  

Similarly, Equity flows, driven by BoFA’s private clients behavior, is at the 50th percentile, which signals most of them aren’t bullish yet. 

This means we can expect FOMO driving markets higher as the sidelined cash comes to action.

The bear case: 

Macro headwinds are real. We have sticky inflation, rising oil prices, an unresolved Strait, and a hawkish Fed. 

But the market doesn't need those to disappear to go higher. 

It needs earnings to hold. Right now earnings aren't just holding. They're accelerating. And the capital spending cycle driving them is only deepening.

This is a bull market.

Meta, Microsoft, Google reported earnings this week – the topline results were solid across the names, with each of them producing 20%+ revenue growth, beating estimates, and raising guidance. 

Here are the top 3 takeaways from their transcripts, before we look at them at name level.

1. The CapEx is demand-driven. All three companies raised capital expenditure guidance, and all three were explicit that the constraint is supply, not demand. Microsoft said customer demand "continues to exceed available capacity." Google said Cloud revenue "would have been higher if we were able to meet the demand." Meta described "continuing to underestimate our compute needs even as we have been ramping capacity significantly." 

2. Enterprise AI is becoming the main revenue line. AI returns are showing up in the operating metrics. Microsoft 365 Copilot weekly engagement is now at the same level as Outlook. Google Cloud's GenAI model revenue grew 800% year-over-year. Meta's Business AIs went from 1 million to 10 million weekly conversations in a single quarter.

3. AI is making the core businesses stronger. AI is not eating Google Search, Meta's ad business, or Microsoft's Office franchise. Google Search queries are at all-time highs. Meta's ad impression growth accelerated. Microsoft 365 seat growth is running at 6% with Copilot ARPU expansion on top. 

Now, let’s see what caused the stock reactions.

Meta dropped 10% on earnings. 

The reason: capital expenditures raised to $125-145 billion for 2026, up from the prior range of $115-135 billion. 

Zuckerberg attributed most of the increase to "higher component costs, particularly memory pricing."

We've seen this exact movie before. 

When Meta signaled a large CapEx path in April 2024, the stock dropped 20%. We backed up the truck.

The gap closed within months and Meta kept sailing to new all-time highs. 

Gap downs on good earnings are opportunities — provided you do the re-underwrite.

Revenue came in at $55.9 billion, up 33% year-over-year, with a 41% operating margin. 

The core business is compounding at a rate that is impressive. 

On top of that, WhatsApp other revenue was up 74%, driven by paid messaging and subscriptions — a monetization layer that barely existed two years ago.

The AI return is already showing up in the operating metrics. 

Ranking improvements in Q1 drove a 10% lift in Reels time spent on Instagram. 

Total video time on Facebook increased more than 8% globally in Q1 — the largest quarter-over-quarter gain in four years. 

(I guess Meta is now a hedge against frying our kids brains?)

Zuckerberg also talked about AI’s impact on the labor market, and it agrees with what we noted earlier: "I hear a lot of people out there talk about how AI is going to replace people. Instead, I think that AI is going to amplify people's ability to do what you want. People will be more important in the future, not less." 

We added Meta as it dropped on earnings.

This is a business with 3.5B users that are using the product every single day, selling on an 18x forward earnings multiple - below the S&P 500. 

Our last few newsletters have featured Microsoft, and for the right reasons. 

This week’s earnings came in solid, but higher capex drove the stock reaction. It was down 5%, despite the beat-beat-and-raise.

Microsoft is guiding to over $40 billion (+25% YoY) next quarter and roughly $190 billion for 2026. 

The fundamental business is solid.

Revenue came in at $82.9 billion, up 18%. Azure grew 40% beating expectations.

The AI business crossed $37 billion in annualized revenue — up 123% YoY. 

Nadella opened the call with the context: "We are at the beginning of one of the most consequential platform shifts that will change the entire tech stack as agents proliferate and become the dominant workload."

The Copilot numbers were the standout. 

Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats crossed 20 million, growing 250% YoY — the fastest growth since launch. 

Nadella put the usage intensity in perspective: "Weekly engagement is now at the same level as Outlook, as more and more users make Copilot a habit." 

This is a product that has become daily infrastructure for enterprise workers. The number of customers with over 50,000 seats quadrupled year-over-year. 

Accenture now has over 740,000 seats — the largest Copilot win to date.

On the CapEx, the anxiety is understandable but the framing is wrong. 

Hood was explicit: "Strong customer demand across workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions continues to exceed available capacity." 

Nadella added the constraint context directly: "We expect to remain [ GPU ] constrained at least through 2026." 

When your problem is that you cannot build fast enough to meet demand, that is a backlog problem, not a spending problem. 

Roughly two-thirds of CapEx is in short-lived assets — GPUs and CPUs that correlate directly with near-term revenue. 

Hood on the return: "When the TAM is so expansive and when shortages are generally growing between supply and demand, it gives you a lot of confidence in the ROI."

Microsoft is also making a shift from the per-user model to ausage based model.

"When you move to usage-based models, you have to make sure you are delivering incredibly high value to customers. The focus starts with customer usage that creates value. If that creates value and positive output, then the TAM expansion here and the ROI will be very good."

Now to OpenAI, which is where the transcript gets genuinely interesting.

OpenAI and Microsoft completed the divorce. They have shared custody on OpenAI IP. 

Satya Nadella played this beautifully.

Look at the deal terms.

Microsoft keeps a license to OpenAI's IP for models and products through 2032.

Think about that.

MSFT doesn't have OpenAI's talent. But it has the model weights, the inference code, the architecture.

Microsoft could ship GPT-class models tomorrow if it wanted to.

When Sam went and cut a $50B deal with Amazon — blowing through his exclusivity clause — Microsoft already had a compelling BATNA.

The result?

Microsoft no longer pays a revenue share to OpenAI.

But OpenAI keeps paying a revenue share to Microsoft through 2030.

Capped, yes. But flowing in one direction.

Frontier model R&D is brutally expensive. 

($14B in losses projected for OpenAI in 2026 alone…)

Microsoft gets the IP, the equity (~27%, worth ~$135B), and a check from OpenAI through the end of the decade. 

That is a materially better deal — extracted at a moment when OpenAI's competitive position is weakening. 

We remain overweight on Microsoft.

Meanwhile, if you own OpenAI, suggest you get a secondary sale exit. 

Google’s reaction was the strongest amongst the other mega caps reporting this week. They have all sorts of ways to win. 

Shares surged more than 7% on Thursday, bringing their YTD gain to over 18% — the best performing stock in the Magnificent Seven so far this year. 

Revenue came in at $109.9 billion, up 22%, marking the company's eleventh consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth. 

Operating income grew 30% to $39.7 billion, with operating margins expanding to 36.1%. 

Pichai: "It's clear that our AI investments and full stack approach are driving performance across our business."

The AI-kills-search thesis is not just wrong — it has inverted. 

Search revenue grew 19% to $60 billion. Pichai's explanation: "Queries are at an all-time high. AI overviews and AI mode continue to drive greater search usage and growth in overall queries, including in commercial queries." 

Google Cloud was the headline number. 

Revenue crossed $20 billion for the first time, growing 63%, with operating margins expanding from 17.8% to 32.9% in a single year. 

Then there's the backlog — nearly doubling sequentially to $462 billion in one quarter. 

Ashkenazi: "The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings." 

She also flagged that the company is "winning new customers faster, with new customer acquisition doubling compared to the same period last year," and that existing customers "outpaced their initial commitments by 45%." 

The AI revenue acceleration inside Cloud is the number worth isolating. 

Pichai: "Revenue from products built on our GenAI models grew nearly 800% year-over-year." 

Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter. 

The number of $100 million to $1 billion deals doubled year-on-year, with multiple billion-dollar-plus deals signed. 

The infrastructure position is what sustains it. 

Pichai described the competitive moat directly: "We are genuinely differentiated. We're unique in the market because of our vertically optimized AI stack and the way we co-develop the components from our infrastructure and models to platforms and tools to applications and agents."

 The 8th generation TPUs introduced this quarter — individually specialized for training and serving — are a concrete expression of that advantage. 

Google owns the silicon, the models, the cloud, the applications, and the distribution. No other hyperscaler has that full stack.

CapEx was raised to $180-190 billion for 2026, and Ashkenazi flagged that 2027 CapEx will "significantly increase" from that level.

YouTube also deserves a mention. Annual revenues have now surpassed $60 billion, and the platform has led streaming watch time in the US for three consecutive years. 

Paid subscriptions hit 350 million. The living room business — over 200 million hours of daily viewing in the US alone — is a distribution asset that no competitor can replicate quickly.

We called Google as a buy in July 2025 when the AI-kills-search narrative had compressed it to roughly 20x forward earnings. 

It has re-rated significantly since and is now the priciest of the three hyperscalers. 

We bought Google pre-earnings since it has a history of beating estimates, and the market has been rewarding beats in this quarter.

Google at 30x P/E NTM is a lot less lucrative than META at 18x, MSFT at 22.5x, and NVDA at 24x. 

Still, it’s a fantastic business and not a bad hold as an investment.

Since Trump took office last January, his comments have been the primary driver behind the five best and five worst days in the S&P 500. 

No other president across twelve administrations going back to Reagan in 1981 has done that. 

You can look at Trump as market's arsonist and firefighter simultaneously. He creates the volatility, then extinguishes it. 

And investors have learned the pattern — they are less panicked at each interval now because they have been conditioned to wait for the reversal. 

The pain threshold is well understood. Markets, on average, have a drawdown of 7 to 10% in the S&P, before the rhetoric softens and the off-ramps appear. 

That feedback loop is now so well understood that volatility itself has changed character. It is not a risk in the traditional sense. It is an inventory. 

The days that feel the most unbuyable are often the ones with the most asymmetric setup — because the firefighter is never far behind the arsonist.

Now, if you are an investor, knowing where Trump’s at is essential. 

This is exactly why we built the Trump Watch feature on the Lumida Invest app. 

No other investment app has this feature.

It tracks everything Trump says or posts, and the AI gives you a 1-liner.

We have various other cool features on our app. 

Right now, we are working on different automated strategies that can help investors copy exclusive factor-based strategies that no other app has. 

If you want to be a part of what we are building, visit www.lumidatribe.com.

We added our current pipeline numbers. Frankly, if we convert our existing pipeline Lumida grows quite significantly. And, we added 3 new service advisors to meet the significant demand for our services.

Unlike a venture raise, we can’t put in a year-end projection number - it’s a ‘forward looking statement’. That’s frustrating, because we see dramatic revenue growth ahead.

If you want to disrupt how investing is done, you need a team that understands both technology and investing. My prior startup, PeerIQ, was sold to a16z backed Cross River.

I am going to call some smart investor friends to close out the round soon. If you think we have a 10% shot at eating into Robinhood’s market cap over the next 5 years, then the upside seems compelling. (I believe our odds are higher :)

Here’s a sample of what we cooked today in our strategies. In the coming months, we’ll make these strats on the tool

This is a high momentum strategy. 

The red/green line reflects the strategy’s return. The black line is the S&P 500. Notice how it outperforms the benchmark  2X+ with comparable drawdown.

Think what it means once we have these strategies in the app for you to deploy your portfolio.

Note: These high momentum strategies have much higher turnover, so they are ideally suited for non-taxable accounts like ROTH IRAs, or algorithmically managed. That’s our direction of travel

Note 2: That’s a backtest. Not real performance, and no transaction costs. So, you need to take backtests with a grain of salt. I’m simply previewing how AI will transform investing in one instance.

Overall, I me excited about our future.

Visit www.lumidatribe.com to join our mission to transform investing with AI. 

Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves – a company focused on global freight news and updates, posted this on the second-order effects of GLP-1s. 

He mentions food and beverage truckload volumes have declined over the last few years. He calls this lack of volume "unusual", since all other categories have expanded. 

However, this decline has a more structural reason.

~13% of U.S. adults are now on GLP-1 medications. On average, each GLP-1 user cuts 720-990 calories per day.

This reduced consumption results in lesser demand for foods and beverage truckloads, which have reduced by 850k-1M (-1%) already.

By 2031, Freighwaves is estimating the number to reduce by ~2 million.

Savory snacks, sweets, baked goods, soda, frozen meals, bread, beef, full-fat dairy, alcohol are all losing loads, structurally and permanently. 

We can see this in the earnings of the legacy soda companies as well. 

Coca-Cola’s FY 2025 global unit case volume was flat, with declines in the United States.

Pepsi’s unit volume reduced by 3% in 2025, driven by a 6% decline in non-carbonated beverages and a slight decline in CSD volume.

Moreover, Beverage Digest’s report confirmed 2025 volumes were down ~1% in refreshment beverages. 

The investment implication runs in two directions. 

The legacy food and beverage complex — the brands that built empires on snacks, soda, and processed foods — is facing a demand headwind that no amount of marketing spend reverses. 

And the freight and logistics names exposed to CPG-heavy dry van corridors are quietly losing volume that isn't coming back.

Not only are Americans getting skinnier. Their truckloads are as well.

The WSJ ran a piece this week titled "OpenAI Wants to Go Public. First Sarah Friar Needs to Get It to Grow Up." 

The second sentence in the heading is what markets should be worried about. 

OpenAI has $1Tr in obligations, and their plan to meet these obligations rely on a revenue CAGR of 80-100%. 

To put that in perspective, you can be Nvidia - the greatest business on earth, and still not grow at the same rate.

More importantly, OpenAI has missed the first step to that growth rate, as it failed to hit its revenue target for 2025. It has also failed to hit 1 billion weekly active users.

The CFO has told other company leaders she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn't grow fast enough. 

It’s funny how she was six months late to the realization. That's the OpenAI balance sheet risk we've been writing about for months.

The theoretical path to funding $1 trillion in obligations runs through a revenue curve that requires almost 100% annual growth. 

The reality is a company that is losing subscribers at the margin, watching Gemini and Claude take share, dealing with a lawsuit from Elon Musk seeking to unwind its for-profit conversion.

This is a key risk to keep an eye on. OpenAI is the exemplar for the AI story, and it’s a significant risk factor for the semis / industrials trade.

Industrials are firmly in bubble territory. It all suggests a setup for a strong rotation in other sectors in the market: breadth expansion… 

A lot of people are remarking on unusual price movements or earnings reactions. 

Here’s what is happening…

Have you seen those movies where a massive tidal wave is forming and the water recedes dramatically from the shoreline?

First, a trip down memory lane: Nvidia reports in May 2024. 

The stock goes up 10%. It goes up again and again - just like semis today. 

Then 30 days later, it has re-rated and is up 40%. 

On the first day of that Nvidia move, other stocks trade down. 

Investors sell what they own to buy Nvidia. Almost indiscriminately. 

It’s a rare phenomenon. 

Nvidia then re-traced a portion of the gains after Cathie Wood bought the top, and breadth expansion followed.

Today, investors have moved money into semis. 

Semis have never had such a high weight in the S&P 500. 

Semis were 2% of the S&P in 2014, and they are 11% today. 

It’s unprecedented. 

So, those purchases must be financed by sales. 

Sales of what? 

Many other categories: capex payers, gold, insurance stocks, retailers, software, large cap tech, and also retail animal spirit names. 

The big irony is this…

Like a boat tilting too much to one side, that positioning shift has revealed many investment opportunities that are now mispriced — too cheap. 

What causes such lopsided behavior to end?

1) Any weakness that undermines the semi story. 

2) compelling value elsewhere that cannot be ignored. 

3) If Cathie Wood buys MU – it’s over :)

4) Natural momentum exhaustion (often after a monthly opex)

I would position for Breadth Expansion. 

When the liquidity leaves semis and industrials, a large number of other categories will reflate.

What if the question isn’t ‘Do we have free will?’

What if free will isn’t binary—but variable?

Something that expands and contracts with awareness.

Most of life runs on autopilot.

Routines. Defaults. Conditioned responses.

You wake up, check your phone, follow familiar loops.

You don’t decide - you execute.

So maybe the real question is:

When are we actually choosing?

Free will shows up in friction.

It’s choosing the right decision over the easy one.

Kant called it duty over interest.

In markets, it’s backing a non-consensus idea that makes you uncomfortable.

That tension is the signal.

Free will is not ease.

It’s resistance to your own defaults.

Now flip it—

What does giving up free will look like?

Endless scrolling.

Rationalizing your way out of the gym.

Ruminating on the past. 

That’s not choice. That’s sleep walking.

You can reinterpret the seven deadly sins through this lens:

Envy, lust, anger—

each is a moment where impulse overrides awareness.

Where the ego takes control.

FOMO? 

That’s outsourced decision-making.

You’re not choosing—you’re reacting.

So who actually exercises the most free will?

Founders.

By definition, they reject consensus.

You can’t be an NPC and a founder.

One follows the path. The other creates it.

High agency is applied free will.

Which leads to the real constraint:

Awareness.

If you can’t observe your impulses, you can’t override them.

If you can’t override them, you’re not choosing.

Most people don’t lack free will.

They just never notice when they’ve given it away.

Jensen says Nvidia uses AI for most of their coding, but they're hiring more engineers than ever. He says when you move faster, your ambitions get bigger. Bigger ambitions require more people.

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Paul Tudor says we're in a sovereign debt bubble. We're over-equitized as a country. Individual equity weightings are at all-time highs in American history. None of that means the market crashes tomorrow.

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40% of Americans think the apocalypse is coming.

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Disclaimer: Lumida Wealth Management LLC (‘Lumida”) is located in New York, NY, and is an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Lumida only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Any direct communication by Lumida with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

The information in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this material are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, Lumida, Inc. and Lumida Wealth Management LLC (collectively Lumida) make no representations or warranties whatsoever the completeness or accuracy of the material provided, except with respect to any disclosures relative to Lumida. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this material. Any data discrepancies in this material could be the result of different calculations and/or adjustments. Lumida accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents, and neither Lumida nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof, apart from the liabilities and responsibilities that may be imposed on them by the relevant regulatory authority in the jurisdiction in question, or the regulatory regime thereunder. Opinions,forecasts or projections contained in this material represent Lumida’s current opinions or judgment as of the day of the material only and are therefore subject to change without notice. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections, which represent only one possible outcome. Furthermore, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that have not been verified, and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to in this material may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. All pricing is indicative as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipients of this material must make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein and should seek advice from such independent financial, legal, tax or other adviser as they deem necessary. Lumida may trade as a principal on the basis of its views and research, and it may also engage in transactions for its own account or for its clients’ accounts in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this material, and Lumida is under no obligation to ensure that such other communication is brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Others within Lumida may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this material. Employees of Lumida not involved in the preparation of this material may have investments in the financial instruments or securities (or derivatives of such financial instruments or securities) mentioned in this material and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this material. This material is not an advertisement for or marketing of any issuer, its products or services, or its securities in any jurisdiction.