Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Markets: The Prevailing Bearish Sentiment; Copy Trading Is Driving Momentum; Adobe: The Market Read The Wrong Line; OpenAI Is Cutting Prices; The Alpha In Healthcare?; The Power Bottleneck; SpaceX IPO: To The Moon; The War For Capital

Macro: Inflation Has Peaked; The Economy Keeps Rolling

Lumida Curations: Gavin Baker on the Three Variables That Decide the AI Winners; Alex Sacerdote on the Risk Nobody Is Pricing in AI; Elon Musk on What SpaceX Investors Are Really Betting On

Kyle Samani, the Co-Founder of Multicoin and early investor in Solana made an ABP request on the internet to find the one app that has broad-based insights on your portfolio as possible — insider actions, politicians, buying, 13F activity, etc.

The answer is decisively the Lumida Invest app. We launched it in the Apple Store two weeks ago, and the repeat usage statistics are quite high.

We will be integrating brokerage capabilities in the back half of this year, and automated investing strategies. You will be able to ‘subscribe’ to strategies that are built by backtested factor models, and take ideas informed by influencers, 13F managers, that you follow.

It’s an exciting time for Lumida. Every day it becomes increasingly obvious to me that AI based investing will disrupt the old guard of 60/40.

If you want to be a part of our journey, check out our new landing page at https://invest.lumida.com/

We built a much tighter landing page. This is the first time we’ve tested ‘raising money from the internet’. We have not done any real marketing outside of this newsletter as we do want to get the die-hards in our community involved first.

That will change in a few weeks. We will also be increasing the valuation of the company given the strong traction we are seeing. I recommend taking a look.

In 9 days, we will be rolling out a major ‘social media’ type live feed on the app. You will get an infinite scroll of insights that are tailored to themes you follow, and assets you own.

Instead of linking dopamine to pushing a buy/sell button (like Robinhood), we are linking dopamine to insight that matters to you.

Thank you for being a part of our journey.

OpenAI is now weighing significant token price cuts to win enterprise share from Anthropic and pre-empt similar moves by rivals. 

The timing isn't a coincidence: companies have started reining in their AI spending as the bills rack up well above expectations. 

Look at the chart below — you can see token usage rolling over as customers pull back.

Lumida Investor, Gokul Rajram, wrote a thoughtful X thread on how companies might go forward with their AI consumption and rationing to save on AI costs without compromising productivity.

Gokul is also on the board of Coinbase, and is an early investor in a quite a few unicorns. We’re proud to count him as a Lumida investor too.

Read more about his thread here.

Cutting prices into the current LLM backdrop makes OpenAI's path to its ~$300 billion by 2030 target dramatically harder. 

And it's funny, because we could see these price cuts coming the moment Sam Altman first laid out those targets — he couldn't. 

Here's a snapshot from our November newsletter, "OpenAI and the Problem with Semiconductor CapEx."

Overall, greater price competition will make achieving revenue numbers harder for the LLM labs. The VCs in LLM labs are essentially subsidizing the rest of humanity.

OpenAI's path to funding ~$1 trillion in obligations rested on an 80–100% revenue CAGR, and that growth rate implicitly assumed the company could price like a monopolist into a market that obviously has competitors. 

You don't get to model monopoly economics when Anthropic is taking enterprise share,

Gemini is taking consumer share, and "good enough" open-source models are eating the low end. Google has no problem financing its capex, and they can do so more efficiently with their TPU model.

Competition don't let you hold price. They force you to cut it.

And here we are. 

The company that needs ~100% annual growth just to stay solvent is about to slash prices to defend its turf. 

When you cut price to chase share in a business already burning $14B a year, you compress the margin on a loss-making operation. The deeper the discount, the steeper the climb to that revenue curve

This is the biggest crack in the AI capital story, and it's one we've flagged repeatedly. 

OpenAI is the exemplar for the entire AI narrative. If its unit economics buckle under competition, the read-through hits the whole semis and industrials trade that's priced as if the buildout funds itself in a straight line.

Which raises the real question: what happens when OpenAI actually IPOs and those economics have to meet a public market?

JP Morgan put out a data center buildout update this week.

The headline: over 60% of US data center capacity planned for completion in 2027 hasn't broken ground — with another 7% already delayed.

It isn't a demand problem; construction spending is still rising. 

The bottleneck is power — licenses delays, the wait for gas turbines, and a shortage of transformers and skilled labor. 

The wait time for generation step-up transformers has roughly tripled.

The chips are ready, the capital is ready, and the projects still can't get energized.

And scarcity has a price. 

When 60% of planned capacity can't start because there aren't enough transformers, turbines, or electrons, the value of power you already have goes vertical. 

You can own a billion dollars and a warehouse of Blackwells and still be stuck in a 4-to-7-year interconnection queue. 

The constraint isn't compute anymore. It's the electricity to run it.

So the math is simple: whoever produces electricity cheaper — and today instead of in 2031 — wins. 

A compute provider tethered to the grid pays the going rate and waits in line. A provider that owns cheap, off-grid generation serves the same compute at fatter margins, right now. That spread is the opportunity.

This is exactly the theme we've been building toward in private markets.

We are actively working on a private investment in a company operating at the intersection of off-grid energy production and datacenter compute — using almost-free natural gas to power their own data centers. We know the team and have invested alongside them before.

If you're an accredited investor or qualified purchaser and want in on this one, write to [email protected] and he'll walk you through it. 

Alternatively, you can get on the list for this and every future private deal by signing up at lumidadeals.com.

SpaceX went public this week and promptly rocketed to a $2.1 trillion valuation — on roughly $18B of revenue last year. 

That's about 117x sales. To think how outrageous this is, NVDA can rise to a valuation of $50T at current sales, and still have a lower price to sales than SpaceX.

This valuation makes OpenAI look like a value play.

The IPO isn't really about raising money to build rockets.

After years of "trust me, stay private," the early backers finally get their liquidity event, and the public market gets handed the bag at $2.1T. 

SpaceX had already reduced the vesting period for their employees, who’ll now be heading to the door, with millions in the bag. 

Folks that look at Tesla as a pseudo-comp forget that the name went nowhere for years after its initial IPO.

Today is a great day for SpaceX investors.

But for eor everyone buying the other side of that trade, the historical record on mega-IPOs is unkind — 13 of the last 14 traded below their listing price a year later. 

The bunny isn’t making any money!

The name could rally on retail vibes…but as the lock-up approaches would suggest stepping away.

Markets ended another week in the green after breaking its streak of 9 last week.

Semis and animal spirits did the heavy lifting again, while money rotated out of Software after the launch of Claude Mythos 5.

The Feds banned Fable (a dumbed down version of Mythos). David Sacks has an explainer here. (We think banning AI is akin to banning books and as a heavy user of these models, the fears are overblown.)

Software has now given up the entire 20% gain it had over the last month. Mag 7 names also sold off as investors created liquidity to buy SpaceEx.

Nvidia now trades at ~20.6X. Microsoft is at 21x and looks like a strong bottom was put in on Friday. Meta is at 17X forward earnings.

The SpaceX IPO created short-term bargains all over the place. We intend to take advantage of those.

Trump was the single biggest variable impacting the price action this week – nothing new.

He threatened an escalation, then called it off - which is something we continue to expect.

The American Bicentennial is just in a few weeks. Trump isn’t going to rock the boat. He also has midterms to contend with.

Note: The Lumida Invest app does real-time tracking of everything Trump is saying or posting, and our AI provides a 1-line summary of the news.

You can enjoy your weekend barbecue without being forced to stare at a screen to stay on top of markets now.

You should check out the app if you haven’t yet. It is available on both playstore and Apple appstore. Search ‘Lumida Invest’ 

Looking beyond, the recent price action doesn’t hurt the bull run. 

Start with sentiment. 

Most sentiment indicators have bearish readings, which means we have cash waiting outside markets - contrarian bullish.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 34 — squarely in "Fear" territory — even after a green week. 

Investors are fearful of market's move higher, and are sprinting back to the bearish camp at the first hint of trouble.

The AAII survey says the same thing. 

Bullish sentiment fell to 30.4% this week, tied for the lowest reading of the year.

Bears jumped to 47.7%. 

This shows the majority of investors are still not confident in markets. This is textbook contrarian-bullish. 

The crowd is leaning bearish into a rising market. 

Contrary to the AAII surveys, the Bofa Bull/bear indicator rose further into the red, indicating high bullish sentiment amongst Bofa clients.

However, it’s important to note the majority of the determinants of this indicator are neutral, while the only bullish indicator is the fund manager cash levels.

They have dropped to 3.9% below the 4% threshold required for a bullish reading.

Nonetheless, the same report tells private clients had the “biggest outflow from equities in 8 weeks”, which shows clients are fearful of the rally, and the bearish sentiment indicated by other surveys prevails commonly amongst investors.

When everyone is scared and already positioned for the drop, who's left to sell? 

These investors are the dry powder, and will end up chasing momentum as markets rally. We saw the same thing at the start of April – it followed a lockout rally, lasting for 10 days. 

Markets climb a wall of worry, and this is a tall one.

Then, you also have the yields angle. 

Last Friday’s demolition was driven by markets pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed hike in 2026. We don’t see this happening at all.

Every risky asset sold off on the payroll news. Markets went from fearing AI destroying jobs, to an economy running to hot.

Brent crude closed at its lowest level since mid-March, dropping below its 50-day moving average. Markets don’t believe the Strait of Hormuz issue matters. As I noted in recent weeks, we think this is also a nothing burger and is fully pricedin.

And when oil falls, the inflation scare comes down with it. 

This makes things easier for the Fed in keeping rates constant. Markets responded positively. 

30-year yields had their biggest single-day drop since October, dipping below their 50-DMA in an impressive outside-day reversal.

10-year yields also had their biggest drop since October. 

Rate hike odds also reduced. The first Fed meeting with a fully-priced hike got pushed from December all the way out to January.

This helps the case for Quality. The recent pressure on financials, insurance, and consumer stocks was driven by higher probability of rate increases.

A decrease in rate hike probability will help the valuations of rate-sensitive categories in general, and that’s what we saw on Friday. 

On a side note: here’s Milton Berg’s report on why recent pullbacks are buyable. Milton has a nice multi-decade track record.

He seconds our thesis on buying volatility surges that we talked about last week. When markets panic, they over-react, and that’s the time to enter.

BofA published a great set of charts this week. These charts really help us understand how positioning has been increasingly one-sided. 

The spread between the best and worst S&P 500 performers is back near COVID levels. These are levels you have hit only 4 times before.

Semis are continuing to soar higher, while everything else gets sold off. This shows capital has stopped allocating on fundamentals and started stampeding into a narrow set of names.

We talked about it last week on how Momentum has attached itself to Junk while Quality names have negative momentum. Read it here. 

The dispersion is even more visible in the tech sector. The spread within Tech is now the highest since the dotcom bubble.

So what caused the lopsidedness?

The explosion in copy trading. 

Investing is social, and never more so than now — retail is ~20% of equity volume, double its 2010 share. 

When the crowd piles into the same handful of names, watching each other and chasing the same 13Fs and the same threads, you get a self-reinforcing flywheel that funnels flows into fewer and fewer tickers. 

Momentum attaches to a narrow basket.

Copytrading is taking place at the 13F level too (see Leopold Ascenbrenner’s fund for example).

Together, they produce exactly the chart BofA is showing: historic dispersion, one side priced for perfection, the other side left for dead.

But, here’s an important note; while the charts draw parallel to the dotcom bubble, this is not the 2000s.

These semis and momentum names have run hard, but they're running on real earnings — the memory and chip complex is putting up earnings growth that, in many cases, outpaces the share price. 

Here’s a repeat of MU’s price move vs its earnings to show how the move is driven by fundamentals. 

A bubble is price detached from fundamentals, which we saw in the dotcom bubble. This is price chasing fundamentals that keep getting revised higher.

However, the flip side of the momentum trade is genuinely interesting. 

The names left behind in the bottom decile aren't junk. 

They're high-quality businesses — real cash flow, double-digit earnings growth, durable moats — that got orphaned for the sole crime of not having a "bottleneck" narrative stapled to the pitch deck. 

Both ends of this market have earnings.

Factors 

In the Lumida Invest App, under Market Color, you can now see factor performance. This tells you which factors are working.

Notice how animal spirits, growth and rates beta worked on Friday, while hedge fund crowding didn’t. This tells you markets are selling quality to chase momentum, which for now, is in small caps.

We will soon be launching a new feature for investors to get factor exposures for your portfolio after you attach your brokerage account.

Download the app here. You can also download it directly from playstore or appstore. 

If you think about it, most traditional advisors won’t have the knowledge on your factors exposure, and even if they did, they wouldn’t have the time to communicate it to you. 

If you’d like to be part of our journey in redefining the $140T wealth management industry, join the Lumida Tribe.  

Adobe sold off despite good earnings, and now trades under 8x forward earnings with a free cash flow yield north of 10%. 

Let me say that again, because it's absurd: one of the best software franchises on the planet, the company that owns the creative professional, is changing hands at a single-digit multiple – a 61% discount to the S&P 500.

Adobe is selling off primarily due to its significant exposure to negative short-term momentum. If you look at the 3 Month Momentum factor - it does an excellent job of explaining the market,.

Adobe cut its FY26 annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth target to ~10.2% and guided individual-subscriber ARR lower. 

And the algos did what algos do — they saw "guidance cut," sold, and moved on.

But markets missed on why the number came down, because this is where it gets interesting.

Adobe isn't losing customers. The opposite. Traffic to adobe.com is up over 40% year-over-year. 

The reason ARR steps down is that Adobe is choosing to send that flood of new users into friction-free freemium funnels instead of slamming a paywall in their face on day one.

Also, the rise of AI is creating a shift from subscription models to token consumption models. That will increase the volatility of revenue and defer revenue.

Long-term, the users who come in through freemium and then convert are far more engaged and have meaningfully higher lifetime value than the ones shoved into a paid flow cold.

The retention and expansion signals back this up

The growth levers:

The "AI kills Adobe" thesis is the same lazy trade as "AI kills Google Search" was in 2024. 

It's wrong for the same reason: when the data and the tools are the thing that makes the AI useful, you don't get disintermediated — you get pulled into every workflow. 

Adobe is putting its agent inside the very LLMs that were supposed to kill it.

We have a 2% position give or take in Adobe.

Note: We were massive bears on Adobe back in 2023 due to AI… now we’re on the opposite side of that pendulum. Read the following thread here.

Healthcare stocks are pricing at multi-decade lows vs the S&P 500.

And yet, I can see from the Lumida Invest app that insiders are buying in aggregate at unusually high levels. 

(We have the smart money feed in Lumida Invest to help you see all recent insider trades.)

Insiders sell stock for many reasons, they buy their stock for only one reason. 

Since short-term momentum is penalized in this market, owning higher relative strength names is a reasonable way to approach the sector.

Here are a few ideas that we are bullish on.

Note: The market is punshing negative short-term momentum names, so look for some technical strength (like a positive return over the last 3 months before getting involved).

Centene (CNC)

Centene is the largest Medicaid managed-care insurer in the country, and the market left it for dead when Washington reset Medicaid economics. 

The stock cratered from the $80s into the $20s. 

The next print will be ugly, with Q2 EPS guided to ~$1.05 against $3.37 a year ago. 

But this is a margin story, not a demand story. Revenue still holds around $190B, the government enrollees aren't going anywhere, and margins normalize as rates reprice on a lag. 

You're paying 4.5x free cash flow — a 22% FCF yield — for a business whose earnings are temporarily depressed, not structurally broken. 

The stock has already begun clawing back off the lows.

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL)

Collegium is a specialty pharma that buys established, cash-generative pain and CNS drugs and runs them with almost no overhead, which is why it earns 89% gross margins and 53% EBITDA margins. 

The market treats it like a melting ice cube in run-off, pricing it at 4.5x forward earnings and a 29% FCF yield. 

But management is doing exactly what you'd want with that cash — buying back stock at a 3.4% clip and paying down debt — while the portfolio keeps throwing off money. 

It ranks in the top decile of US healthcare on nearly every profitability and valuation-yield metric. 

Royalty Pharma (RPRX)

Royalty Pharma is the bank behind the drugmakers. It funds research in exchange for a royalty on future drug sales, so it collects a cut of some of the best-selling therapies in the world without carrying R&D risk or manufacturing cost. 

That model is why it runs on pristine 90+% gross margins and 68% EBIT margins, essentially an annuity on blockbuster drugs. 

Free cash flow has compounded from under $1.5B to $2.6B across the cycle, yet the stock trades at 10.5x forward earnings with the FCF yield over 7%. 

Humana (HUM)

Humana is one of the two dominant players in Medicare Advantage — a structurally growing market as the population ages. 

And, it offers the cleanest fundamentals-vs-price dislocation in the group. 

Look at the revenue estimate against the share price: consensus sales have marched relentlessly higher, while the stock broke hard and detached from that line entirely when the MA margin scare hit. 

The two have been diverging for two years. The price is recovering now, but the gap is still enormous. 

At 0.3x sales with revenue re-accelerating — FY26 sales up 25% — the stock is pricing a permanent impairment that the analysts revising estimates higher flatly reject. 

Either the estimates are wrong, or the price is. We'd bet on the revenue.

Google announced its investment from Berkshire Hathaway the same day Anthropic filed its S-1.

Anthropic seeks to front-run OpenAI in a race to IPO.

OpenAI reportedly is seeking to cut the cost of tokens to hurt Anthropic's IPO.

The "bottleneck" is not talent. It is not GPUs. It is not even data.

It is durable, low-cost capital.

Capex comes first. Margins come later. Maybe.

Everyone is playing the same game:

Who gets funded longest before the market asks for profits?

The big winners are of course consumers and enterprise. 

Capitalism works.

This 'race for capital' explains why the leading IPO bookrunners are far outpacing other financials.

May's inflation prints landed hot. CPI came in at 4.2% y/y — about as hot as expected — and 2.9% core, which was actually a touch cooler than the street looked for.

The wholesale data was uglier. 

PPI for final demand – what producers charge before goods reach the shelf –  rose 1.1% m/m for the second straight month, dragging the yearly rate to 6.5% — the fastest pace in over three years. 

Similarly, producer prices for goods surged 2.8% m/m, the largest one-month jump on record, pushing the yearly rate to 10.4%, a level we haven't seen since October 2022.

So on the surface, this looks like a problem.

But look at what's driving it.

The acceleration was overwhelmingly an energy story — a 11% monthly spike in energy prices did most of the damage in the PPI report, with transportation and warehousing adding another 2.6%. 

On the CPI side, nondurable goods inflation jumped to 8.0% y/y, almost entirely on a 23.5% y/y move in energy.

This is one input doing all the work.

The other pressures are actually more contained. The durable goods inflation came in at -0.1% y/y. Core goods ex-used-autos actually plunged 1.5% annualized.

That is the sound of last year's tariff shock wearing off.

The economy doesn’t have a broad inflation problem. You have an oil problem wearing an inflation costume. 

And, this show won’t last long. 

The pressures lifting inflation higher are the ones already in retreat.

Oil has shown its peak and is in a jagged retreat — more and more ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and as the supply scare unwinds, crude settles lower. 

We saw Brent dip below its 50DMA on Friday.

Moreover, Trump is now signaling a deal is imminent, waving beef tariffs, and previewing a "positive" China conversation. The man is in full firefighter mode heading into the midterms, and getting inflation in control will be his top priority. 

We think May was the high-water mark for Inflation and it has peaked.

On rates, we don’t see any hikes coming this year. 

For one, you don’t expect a Trump appointee to second a rate hike, when things are already going against him. 

And, second, Warsh prefers trimmed measures of CPI — and conveniently, those came in lower. 

Core CPI ex-shelter rose just 2.4% y/y in May. The CPI inputs even point to a friendlier core PCE around 2.7% annualized — better than the last few months.

So, Warsh does have support to convince members for a rate hold here (and probably keep an easing bias). 

One constant over the last year has been the US’s economic resilience. And, the latest data signals its staying the same way.

This week’s US Economic Index rose 3.2% y/y — its highest reading since September 2022.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model agrees. It revised its Q2-2026 estimate up this week, from 3.0% to 3.3%.

And the composition is the part that matters.

Real consumption growth got nudged up from 2.4% to 2.5% — fine, the consumer is hanging in. 

But the eye-opener is investment. 

Look at the components chart. 

The bars doing the heavy lifting are all on the business side: fixed business equipment running at 14%, fixed business investment near 9%, intellectual property north of 6%.

This is not consumers torching their savings to keep the print alive.

This is businesses spending money. And businesses don't commit capital to equipment, structures, and IP unless they believe the demand is there to earn a return on it. 

Capex is a confidence vote with a multi-year holding period — you don't make it casually.

When you see investment growing 4x the pace of consumption, that's a corporate sector that thinks the expansion has legs.

Banks second the motion.

Large banks' loans grew 7.7% y/y in May — the strongest pace since the middle of 2023. Small banks were also higher at 4.7%, firmly expanding.

This matters more than it looks.

Banks tighten when they're scared and lend when they're confident. Loan officers don't extend credit at the fastest clip in two years into an economy they think is about to roll over. 

Credit is the circulatory system of the expansion, and right now it's flowing — which tells you the people closest to credit risk are seeing the same strong economy the GDP data describes.

When inflation pressures supposedly threaten everything, banks accelerating their loan books is the opposite of a recession signal.

And the jobs keep coming.

The BLS reported that the average monthly pace of job creation over the three months through May was 188,000 — the best such run since March 2024.

Remember where the narrative was a couple of months ago: AI was going to gut the labor market, and we were all going to be obsoleted by a model. Instead, we're creating jobs at the fastest pace in over a year.

We've made this case before and we'll make it again — AI is driving labor demand, not destroying it. The data keeps siding with us.

Put the three together and the picture is unambiguous. An economy compounding at 3%, businesses investing at double-digit rates, banks opening the credit taps, and the strongest hiring run since early 2024.

That's a hot economy.

It's factors all the way down.

A very curious thing happened in the Spring of 2025.

Before Tariffmageddon, the basic rule in the market was 'Buy the Dip, and Sell the Rip'.

Since April of last year, the dynamic changed to 'Buy the Rip, and Sell the Dip'.

The new dynamic was winners keep winning, and losers keep losing.

That's a flip to what existed in markets in the 2023 and 2024 periods where oversold names in uptrends would bounce, and overbought names in uptrends would pullback.

My hypothesis...

What we saw in 2025 was an explosion in copy trading. 

The value proposition of a number of new apps centered on copy trading.

We also saw substack proliferation, telegram chats, X spaces and so on.

You can see that in these factors.

The 1M Reversal factor shows the performance of stocks that are deeply oversold. Notice the dip keeps dipping.

Also, stocks at 52 Week Highs keep ripping. 

These are relatively new features to the market.

It says a lot about the Market Regime and how Social Media and technology has transformed technology.

Has this happened before?

In the Dot Com era, people used message boards and fax machines. 

Same concept, different technology.

The big takeaways:

(1) Markets are more factor driven than ever. 

Knowing what factors you are exposed to is crucial.

Are those factors changing course or not?

(2) The short-term negative momentum has put a bunch of high quality businesses on sale, and has lifted junk stocks to high levels.

(3) The increase in quant products from AQR and Quantinno may be contributing to more momentum inadvertently... but I think this is less significant a factor than retail trader behavior - it could compound it though.

KOLs that bid these names on the way up can get caught holding the bag on the way down when they cannot grow their audience to drive new flows.

If you have the Lumida Invest app, you'll be able to connect your portfolio and see if you are wrongly positioned versus the factors that are working. 

Try the app here. 

Gavin Baker believes the AI race will be won by companies that can borrow cheaply, deploy compute fast, and turn proprietary data into better models before the market catches up.

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Alex Sacerdote suggests the real risk in the AI trade is not weak demand, but what happens if model progress slows and the value shifts away from the frontier labs toward whoever controls compute.

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Elon Musk says SpaceX is not just a rocket company, but a bet on dramatically lowering the cost of moving mass through space and eventually making the moon economically usable.

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