Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Macro: AI is driving Labor Markets; High Employment + Higher Inflation

Markets: The Return of Quality; The Bull Market Is Intact; SPGI: The Sequel; Nvidia: The Bull Case Keeps Writing Itself; Google Knows It’s The Leader; The Midterm Trade; Advice For Young

Lumida Curations: Satya Nadella on the Real AI Moat; Sundar Pichai on Why AI Needs Government Coordination; Donald Hoffman on Consciousness and Reality

This week, I sat down with Robert Dewey, founder of the Exploring Prosperity podcast.

Bob is a Morgan Stanley vet and has seen how technology has transformed investing over the cycles.

We covered how AI is reshaping the economy, why the old guard of wealth management is ripe for disruption, and how Lumida is leading the charge. Search for Lumida Invest on the Apple or Android app store.

Here's what we got into:

Watch the podcast here.

This week, Lumida hosted another Penthouse networking event in New York for the Lumida Tribe. We’re getting into a regular monthly rhythm here — if you’d like to join, shoot [email protected] a note or consider joining the Lumida Tribe at www.lumidatribe.com.

The caliber of people - CEOs, Founders, and Investors - and more importantly, the discussion is enlivening.

In March, investors were worried AI would destroy jobs. 

On Friday, investors are worried we have too many jobs.

Such is the nature of markets — veering from fear to greed and back again.

Payrolls came in hot — roughly 175K against an 80K estimate with employment rate stable at 4.3%. 

That’s good news. 

But the market hated it, because it wasn't pricing strength; it was pricing the Fed's reaction to this strength. 

Nasdaq dipped ~4.8%, recording its worst day in over a year. SPY and IWM were also down over 2.5%.

Fed funds futures started flickering toward a 25bp hike by September. 

Technology (XLK) fell 7%, and understandably so — XLK was the index that had run the most off the March lows.

The best winners tend to go down the most during a pullback.

To understand what’s happening under the surface, have a look at factors.

The chart below shows various market-neutral long/short factor baskets. 

The factors in green — Animal Spirits and Volatility — have had an incredible run since March: unprofitable tech, story stocks, anything with "semiconductor bottleneck" stapled to the pitch deck. These are also known as ‘junk stocks’.

These have been on an absolute tear the last two months, confounding many investors.

(We talked about what was under-pinning this rally over the last two weeks.)

The boxes in yellow are the Quality factor — profitable businesses, real earnings growth, priced reasonably, and not coincidentally the names hedge funds own.

They're sitting near their lows.

Here's the subtle part. 

The 12-month Momentum factor is also near its lows — because those quality stocks were the momentum trade, right up until they weren't. 

What's driving markets today is Short-Term Momentum, and it has done something rude: it attached itself to the junk. 

Quality names now carry negative short-term momentum. They're in the wrong factor crosshairs, so they keep selling lower for no reason a fundamental investor would recognize. 

Look at NU — 30%+ EPS growth, near the low end of its 10-year multiple, drifting down anyway. NU is the kid who did all the homework and still got grounded because the factor model didn't like its attitude.

There are many stocks like this.

However, this Friday, we noticed that quality stocks didn’t tank like other names. . 

Semis - where the rally has concentrated - started to weaken.

The first signs were how markets reacted to Broadcom’s results, which were actually not bad. They had 51% earnings growth, but still lost approximately one-fifth of their market cap.

Here’s how the sector picture looks now. 

Technology rolled over after peaking this week, while names in financials, health care, consumer discretionary, and more generally, quality are starting to pick up. 

Notice a lot of down red arrow, and one big up green arrow.

These are the ingredients for a rotation. 

We've been making the case for a quality rotation over the last two weeks, this week evidence shows the rotation is underway. 

Let me walk you through it.

The VTV/SPHB ratio — value against high beta — was getting absolutely destroyed when we last looked at it in mid-May, bleeding to new lows as capital poured into semis and animal spirits. 

It is now starting to redeem itself.

Value ETF has won three consecutive days against high beta, bouncing hard off the lows. 

The character has changed. A ratio that was getting sold into every descending average is now rallying into them instead. 

That's the first sign the wind is shifting.

You can see the same in individual stocks.

Last week, we highlighted how Accenture and Cognizant has had a change in character, and are now recovering from lows.

ACN moved only -0.4% on Friday, while the broader sector declined 7%.

Similar story for Cognizant (CTSH) — these were stocks in a bear market, and are now turning. That’s textbook rotation.

You can also see more evidence for the rotation in Growth versus Value as a share of the S&P chart. 

Growth sits at ~74%, Value at ~26% — and that spread has blown out dramatically over the last couple of months. 

We're now at levels never seen before, and this can’t last. 

The last time the chart hit extreme was back in Oct-Nov 2025 when Sam Altman did that ‘We have $1 Tn in spending obligations’ interview. 

Here’s how value responded back then – A significant recovery lasting till year end.  

The rotation also makes sense when you look at the one-sided positioning. 

Technology has spent more than a month sitting over 10% above its 50-day moving average — this is the financial equivalent of holding a plank for six minutes. Impressive, but somebody's about to collapse.

When Tech gets this stretched for this long, the next one and three months tend to disappoint.

The leader has run too far, too fast, and the buyers at these prices are running out. 

The initial tell was South Korean retail traders investing their pension funds into semis. Tech shot beyond fundamentals as everyone got in.

Remember we shared the analysts’ price target chart last time showing how semis were trading over their target. It was the first signal.

Google issuing new equity to fund its capex was also a cause of weakness. (We will talk about this more in the Markets section.)

The demolition in the semis momentum coincided almost perfectly with a bottom in insurance stocks. 

KIE bottomed as high beta got wrecked. (Berkshire gained 2%, while SMH lost ~10%!)

Here’s the KIE/SMH ratio - notice how this looks exactly like the value vs high beta ratio we saw earlier.

Insurance names have declined significantly during this rotation.

Names like Allstate, and Progressive were trading at P/E NTM of ~7x and ~12x respectively. 

Have a look at their FCF yields. 

Allstate (ALL): 21%

Progressive (PGR): 14%

This shows how the market had been discounting quality over the last couple of months. 

Interestingly, both these names rose sharply this Friday. Insurance has received a bid during market turmoil. We’ll need to see if the category can stick the landing.

All to say though, if you’re a long-term investor, there are plenty of bargains out there. You need to sit back, pick up quality names, and wait 1 year. 

The money isn't leaving the market. It's changing seats into quality.

Financials, overall, are mispriced. The sector is trading at a P/E NTM of 15x, while the index trades at ~22x. 

This sector, like insurance, sold off due to higher interest rates which in our view have topped out.

We have an expanding economy, increasing investment activity, and higher spending — all of these point toward solid future earnings. 

Within financials, consumer finance names like Synchrony (SYF), Bread financial (BFH), and Enova(ENVA) offer even more compelling opportunities. We own all of them. 

Have a look at their FCF yields. 

Synchrony has a FCF yield of ~41% with a P/E NTM under 8x. 

Similarly, Bread Financial (BFH) trades at a similar P/E valuation with an even higher FCF yield (58%).

Enova’s yield looks less in comparison, but is still above 40%. Enova now owns a bank as well! That should lower funding costs driving more bottom line impact.

We have a favorable view on the U.S. Consumer — including the bottom half — and these names are linked to that sector.

These are businesses generating almost half of their market caps in cash every year. That’s what you call a discount. 

We also see the rotation helping consumer discretionary — autos, cruise lines, homebuilders. They are trading cheap on both absolute and relative multiples even as the consumer keeps spending. 

Here's Goldman’s data chart showing positive inflows to consumer discretionary in May after two consecutive months of selling. That’s bullish!

Similarly, Health care also has catalysts with midterm approaching and odds of a democrats win increasing. We talk about it in the markets section.

Despite the demolition we saw on Friday, the bull market is intact.

Earnings are driving the markets, and the estimates have continued to soar higher. 

AI capex have been higher than initial estimates, which is helping earnings across the AI flywheel.

Moreover, the inflation pressures are likely to come off as more ships pass through the strait, and oil settles at lower levels. Over 1000 ships passed through the SoH this week, which is a good sign.

Tactically, we did a study to see what happens after Vix spikes 30% in a day as it did on Friday, and the results second our bullish stance. 

Going back a decade, there have been 23 instances. The S&P was higher one month later in 21 of those 23 cases, with an average one-month return of +2.66%.

We saw a similar Vix spike after Brexit, and it marked the immediate bottom then for markets.

The averages are positive across time frames. The fear spike, over and over, has been the entry.

Similarly, here’s another study measuring returns for Nasdaq after it gaps down 1% on two consecutive days. 

The forward returns are positive in 13 out of 15 cases with a median gain of ~9% in 2 months. 

This gives us more confidence in the rally. 

There can be a few more red days. But, we are close to a bottom (if we haven’t seen one already).

Buying the panic in a bull market with accelerating earnings has been the right call far more often than not.

I think the biggest question in markets is where to position – you could have owned Nvidia in the last few months, and still underperformed AMD, which is fundamentally weaker on all metrics.

We simplified the answer to positioning in our Lumida Invest App. 

Here’s a screenshot of our opportunity and fear page - a feature within the market color segment of our app. 

See how the AI has placed XLV and XLF in the excessive fear segment, which tells these sectors are oversold beyond their fundamentals. This is where the opportunity lies. 

Interestingly, XLV and XLF ended green on Friday, while the majority was red. This tells you the rotation is underway. 

We have also added Factors performance within the market color segment. This tells you which factors are working. 

See how the animal spirits and rate sensitive names have sold off, while hedge fund-owned names are soaring. This, again, signals quality is working. 

We have more exciting features rolling out every week. 

The app is now available in playstore and Apple appstore.

Initial reviews have been solid. People are noticing the app can do a lot more in a lot less than many traditional advisors.

AI truly has the potential to disrupt investing. 

If you also think AI can disrupt investing, join Lumida in redefining the wealth management industry. 

Our equity raise is underway at a valuation of $75MM. We have already completed the hardest “Zero-to-one” journey, and now is the time to go BIG!

Find all details here.  

I did a FSD livestream on Friday on how AI will impact the labor market, and where the disruption would occur. Watch it here.

This week, nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000 in May, more than double the 85,000 expected. 

Private payrolls also beat expectations at 120,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.

Overall, jobless claims remain in their lower territory and layoff activity is subdued.

Job openings now stand equal to the number of unemployed workers meaning every unemployed American, in aggregate, has a job opportunity for them. 

A sweet equilibrium. 

The composition of the new openings is where it gets interesting. 

April's increase in job openings wasn't driven by giant employers. 

Openings at establishments with 1-9 employees surged 69% MoM— the strongest reading on record. 

The biggest sector contributor was Professional & Business Services, up 64% m/m, also a record.

Tiny firms and knowledge-work firms are the ones throwing the hiring party. Ironically, the doomists expected these firms will be the first to get disrupted with AI. However, it turns out they can expand faster now with AI, and take on more clients. 

AI is driving labor demand. 

AI is making a worker productive, and businesses are hiring them more to bring more output. 

New business applications are climbing to record highs. Functions that used to require a full team can now be handled by a founder with the right tools, so the barrier to launching has collapsed. 

It's never been easier to spin up a website, a storefront, a one-person agency. 

Lower barriers mean more businesses, and more businesses mean more demand for labor. 

That's a structural tailwind compounding quietly in the background.

Here’s how I see it:

Will some categories get wrecked by AI? Of course. 

We obsoleted the overnight bank teller with the ATM and the toll-booth operator with EasyPass, and nobody grew up dreaming of either job. 

But AI doesn't substitute for labor so much as shift the ratio of human capital to AI capital — call it tokens — for each task. 

The funny thing is that the shift is currently running in the opposite direction from the panic: Uber is cutting AI token spend because it's too expensive relative to human labor, and Microsoft is telling its own engineers to go easy on the tokens because the bill is getting silly.

The reason AI doesn't break the labor market is productivity. Each new worker today produces more than the worker hired a year ago, and that's the engine underneath everything: more productive workers make more milkshakes, ship more software, and read more MRIs per hour. 

More output is more income for businesses — which is why you can pay workers more, not less. 

That same productivity spread is also the disinflationary force in the economy, quietly offsetting some price pressure coming from energy.

The labor market is not the only part of the economy running hot. Inflation is too.

We have had two consecutive hot prints of inflation, and with oil rising, you can’t expect inflation to slow down. 

This means one thing, and markets know it. 

The 2-year Treasury yield has moved higher to about 4.1%, above the current 3.50%–3.75% FFR range. 

The 2-year often leads the Fed. 

When it trades above the policy rate for consecutive months, markets take it as a signal of an incoming rate hike, which is why we saw Friday’s reaction.

Polymarket odds for rate hike in 2026 have risen to 51%. On another bet, the rate cut odds have dropped to 18%. Both created new levels after Friday’s print. We don’t think Fed is likely to cut with Warsh coming in.

BoFA put together an interesting chart in their latest flow show report, comparing what happens when unemployment rate and inflation are close together (just like we have right now). 

Historically, when inflation has run near the unemployment rate, markets have had a harder time. 

This setup has appeared only a handful of times since 1960, including periods around 1966, 1973, 1990, 2000, 2008, and 2021. And, we know what followed each of those intervals. 

Not every episode is the same. But, this isn’t a benign combination.

The economy is strong enough to keep earnings alive. It may also be strong enough to make the Fed uncomfortable.

Remember the first time we wrote about S&P Global? Back in November in "The Revenge of Warren Buffett." 

This whole newsletter is starting to read like the sequel — quality on sale, again.

Here's the thing.

The P/E NTM today is 20x. The stock got cheaper while the business got better compared to the last time we wrote about it. 

Q1 revenue rose 10%, adjusted EPS increased by 14%, with margin expansion in every single division. 

Ratings revenue increased 13% — partly riding a wave of hyperscaler AI-infrastructure debt issuance.

This is a fun little irony: the AI capex boom that's torching quality multiples is literally paying S&P to rate the bonds funding it. 

Indices revenue was up 17%. 

They returned a billion to shareholders in buybacks in the quarter and just bumped their repurchase plan to ~$4.5B for 2026 because — their words — the share price is attractive. 

Then there's the AI angle, which the market is treating as a threat and is actually a tailwind. 

The fear is that LLMs disintermediate the data business — why pay S&P when you've got Claude? As it turns out you can't replace the ingredients by buying a fancier oven.

Customers are pulling S&P data into Claude and Copilot. API call volume is up 5x in a single quarter, and clients using the AI features have higher retention, and renewing at higher prices. 

You can't disintermediate the data when the data is the thing that makes the AI useful.

The moat isn't the desktop — it's the proprietary content, the GICS standards, the 30-year well datasets nobody can rebuild.

Free cash flow: ~$5.56B trailing, grinding to new highs, with a FCF/market cap yield back up to ~4.4% — near the high end of its multi-year range. 

Rising FCF and a rising yield means the cash is growing while the price isn't keeping up. That's the setup.

Note: There are quite a few quality stocks on sale. As of today, we don’t even own SPGI - we’re simply highlighting one example. See Broadridge, or Morningstar for other examples.

The key to watch? When the 3M Momentum gets less negative, these can rally… and some of them are.

SpaceX just signed a cloud deal with Google worth $30.3B for access to roughly 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs. 

That comes just weeks after the Anthropic deal — $1.25 billion a month ($60B in total) to rent the entire Colossus 1 data center. 

Google's deal is for about half the compute Anthropic gets.

If you look at it, companies like SpaceX and Meta are pivoting into cloud services to offset their own capex — renting out compute they built. 

And every one of those deals is denominated in the same currency: NVIDIA GPUs. 

So the demand picture for Nvidia is about as un-ambiguous as it gets. The bottleneck is still supply. 

Every hyperscaler, every lab, and now every space company moonlighting as a cloud provider is funneling capex straight into Jensen's order book. 

Now the part the market seems to have missed— the valuation. Pull up NVDA's forward P/E and it's sitting at ~20.6x. 

The fastest-growing large-cap on the planet, with 70%+ gross margins and demand contracts stretching to 2029, trades at a lower forward multiple than the S&P. 

This is the bottom of NVDA's entire multi-year range, levels last touched in the early-2024 and early-2025 washouts. 

The price went up; the multiple went down, because earnings grew faster than the stock. 

That's not a bubble. That's the opposite of a bubble.

Funny enough, Nvidia got treated like a funding source in the latest semis boom. 

Through this junk rally, money rotated out of NVDA to chase memory and animal spirits — you can see it in the internals. 

NVDA and the SOX have moved in opposite directions on roughly 12 of the last 21 trading days, a level of divergence inside the semis complex you almost never see. 

Investors were selling the highest-margin, fastest-growing name in the group to chase the lower-quality, more crowded memory trade. 

AMD outran NVDA despite worse margins, worse revenue growth, and worse earnings growth. That's a factor distortion, not a fundamental one.

Distortions like that resolve. 

As short-term momentum rolls over and the market rotates back to quality, the name with the best fundamentals and the cheapest multiple in its own sector is exactly what gets bought first. 

The valuation is bottoming, and the rotation is a tailwind.

Google’s AI numbers came in this week, and Gemini is turning into a reliable growth lever.

Gemini hit 900 million monthly users in May, and paid subscriptions crossed 350 million. It’s taking share away from Anthropic and OpenAI.

And Google is able to gain these followers while cutting Gemini’s serving costs by 78%. 

This means you have revenues improving and costs dropping – this is compounding in its simplest form. 

And, Gemini isn’t even Google’s main source of revenue. It has the OG search engine, Youtube, Waymo, and the cloud business. How does it not win?

(However, the investment opportunity in Google seems to be priced in. P/E NTM is nearing all time highs, and is about 31% more expensive than Nvidia.)

While talking about Google’s leading position in AI, they have decided to lead both Anthropic and OpenAI for their new issuance. 

This week, Alphabet announced it will raise $85 billion in equity.

Why equity over debt? Because, the former is cheaper at current valuations (which adds to why we say the investment opportunity is priced in here.)

Google's after-tax cost of debt has crept higher while the market hands its equity a premium valuation. 

So, Google is doing the coldly rational thing and selling the expensive thing to fund its buildout. 

The timing of this raise is interesting. This is one more duck expecting to get fed in this season of record IPO issuances. 

Google will have no trouble placing its stock. It's Google — it could issue paper at a black-tie gala and investors would fight over the pen. 

The question is: will everyone else find it this easy? 

The equity market is $70 trillion, and an additional few hundred billion in issuance from Spacex, OpenAI, and Anthropic should get absorbed. There might be a burp in the first week or two, but the market can handle it.

However, the capital would have to rotate from existing positions to fund these issuances, meanings the funding sources would struggle.

Tesla is a likely funding source — Elon fans will move from Tesla to SpaceX. It has been in a bear market for last couple of months, having lost over 9%, while markets have been positive. Funny enough, it still trades at an outrageous earnings multiple of 357x — not Musk’s problem if he thinks SpaceX is worth $1.75T.

Compute demand is increasing, and there’s no question about it. But, those datacenters can’t run without electricity, which is scarce.

The IEA sees electricity consumption from data centers roughly doubling from 485 TWh in 2025 to 950 TWh by 2030, with AI-focused data centers tripling over the period.

As of early 2026, U.S. interconnection queues held 2,600 GW of proposed generation and storage — more than the entire installed power capacity of the country, with grid waits in Northern Virginia, Phoenix, and Dallas now running 4 to 7 years.

The chips are ready, the capital is ready — and the projects still can't get energized.

You can have a billion dollars and a warehouse of Blackwells and still be stuck waiting on a transformer.

When power is the scarce input, the math is simple: whoever produces electricity cheaper wins.

A compute provider tethered to the grid pays the going rate and waits in line.

A provider that owns cheap, off-grid generation serves the same compute at fatter margins and does it today instead of in 2031.

That's the trade.

Compute demand is insatiable, but the bottleneck and the margin both sit with power.

The cheapest electricity maker is the one who captures the spread.

We are actively looking at a private investment opportunity in exactly this theme — a company operating at the intersection of off-grid energy production and datacenter compute. We know the team, and have invested with them before.

If you are an accredited investor or qualified purchaser, and would like to get in on this deal, write to [email protected] to learn more about it.

Alternatively, you can also sign up at Lumida Deals and receive all of our private deals related communications.

Polymarket odds are predicting a comfortable win for Democrats in the midterms, with roughly a 45% chance of sweeping Congress. 

Here are the two groups we have identified that will benefit from a Democrats win. 

Solar 

Democrats are the more supportive party on renewables — solar checks every box: lower emissions, domestic manufacturing, jobs, energy independence. 

The 2022 IRA was the template, with long-dated clean-energy credits underwriting the cycle. 

So if Democrats gain ground — or if the market simply starts pricing it — solar is one of the first places participants reach. 

The part we like even better: with energy costs elevated, solar is increasingly the obvious alternative to expensive oil regardless of who wins. 

Heads you win on policy, tails you win on the oil price. 

We have Solar Edge (SEDG) for our exposure in solar. We had discussed it in the newsletter previously. Read our thesis here. 

Healthcare, genomics, and biotech 

A Democratic House lowers the odds of rollbacks to healthcare coverage, which makes investors more comfortable owning these groups into the back half. 

Healthcare already has some short term momentum with investors turning positive on the category due to discounted valuations and AI-enabled drug discovery, cures, and treatment. 

The midterm narrative juices a move already underway.

We talked about our healthcare picks (LLY) last month. Read our theses here. 

There's still time before November, and this could take another month or two to develop.

Healthcare rallied as markets tanked last Friday, they aren’t an ideal entry today, but perhaps later this week or next week.

If you’re young, here’s a simple way to become a deca-millionaire in 20 to 30 years. 

Learn how to build homes. 

That’s it. 

1) There is a massive shortage of homes

2) The gross margins are 30%+

3) There are no winner take all dynamics; many publicly traded home builders out there

4) Your business is AI proof

5) The talent at your age is thinking about ‘hand rolling kernels’ while you learn entrepreneurial management

6) After you learn how to build homes then learn how to build ‘homes of homes’ (multi-family)

There is no need to go to an Ivy League school, or master The Transformer whitepaper. 

I have a friend who did not go to college. He went to half a dozen high schools. 

He is in his young 40s. Worth about $80 M. 

Another buddy specialized in multi-family development. He wants to take his company public. 

It would get a $500 MM valuation. 

He owns most of it. 

Capitalism rewards those who address needs and serve the most at scale. 

Don’t get bent out of shape focusing on what everyone else is focusing on. 

Satya Nadella argues that the biggest edge in AI may not be the model itself, but the private evals and harness that let companies keep improving as models change.

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Sundar Pichai’s point is that AI regulation is less about slowing innovation and more about giving governments visibility before frontier systems create national-security risks.

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Donald Hoffman suggests that consciousness may not be a strange exception to physics, but a deeper structure that our current tools are only beginning to detect.

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