Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Macro: The American Consumer; Credit Quality Stays High; Deal Flow Is Soaring At Record Pace; The Fed Can Afford to Wait.

Markets: A Brick in the Road; Momentum Was Due for a Time-Out; The Magnificent Seven Are Catching the Other Side of the Trade; Is It The End?; Medical Devices Are Getting Their Pulse Back; AI Is Still Getting Started; Bad Times for OpenAI and Anthropic

Lumida Curations: Brian Moynihan on Why Consumers Are Borrowing

Lumida brought together a select group of families, investors, and industry leaders for an intimate evening of thoughtful conversations and relationship building.

Grateful to everyone who joined us and contributed to such a strong evening. 

We are doing another event in September sponsored by Bloomberg at their headquarters.

Reach out to your Lumida contact or reply to this note with a bit about yourself if you’d like to join. 

I will be in Chicago for the Decasonic conference this coming week. Would be great together if you are in town.

The speaking agenda is about the future of money through stablecoins, payment networks, institutional adoption, and more.

If this sounds interesting, you can sign up for the event here.

We are seeing the beginning of ‘AI Beneficiaries’ as a trend in markets.

Biotech was the first category to benefit from association with AI.

I’d expect Financial Services is a major beneficiary of AI.

No one likes their bank experience. Wires are painful. The tellers are uninformed. There’s no notification other than whn you forget to setup Auto Pay.

Here’s the future.

AI agents can move money, rebalance portfolios, handle bills, and coordinate with accountants, attorneys and advisors.

The winners in financial services will not simply add a chatbot to an old bank.

They will build a new financial institution around intelligence.

My guess is that we will see a bank, that does not yet exist, that turns this into a $50 Bn market cap in 10 years.

People that have followed me for a while know I have a obsession with banks. There’s a reason Warren Buffett likes banks: cheap funding, compounding book value…

Our vision with the Lumida Invest app is to integrate banking features and combine wealth management and banking in a single cohesive experience.

This is the strategy James Gorman (former CEO of Morgan Stanley) applied at MS, and when he was the EVP of Merrill Lynch.

Already, we see names like Erebor commanding a $5 Bn valuation… and they aren’t AI native.

If you know of a bank for sale or want to be a part of this, do shoot me an email.

More generally, I’d expect large cap financials to do quite well.

Names like American Express and others will incorproate AI to enhance the customer experience and reduce their operating costs. It’s inevitable that JP Morgan - which has a $10 Bn+ tech budget, adopts AI and becomes a $1 Tn market cap bank.

There’s room for a faster, nimbler disruptor in the mix to build with AI from the ground up with an AI Avatar at the center.

We will be rolling out AI Avatars in the next 9 months or so. (We need inference costs to drop).

The reviews on the app are strong. 

Thanks Alex for the kind words. You can find the app at www.lumidainvest.com.

Big banks kicked off Q2 2026 earnings this week.

Bank earnings are really a cheat code for the real economy, providing real and accurate insights on everything you need to know about consumers, businesses, and the economy in general.

The message from the C-suites this quarter was remarkably consistent: the economy is still strong, consumers are spending, dealmaking is roaring, and AI buildout is the lever coming into play.

Here's what stood out.

Across every major bank, executives reported steady spending, stable credit, and no signs of consumer fatigue.

Brian Moynihan (CEO, Bank of America):

"The spending picked up during the second quarter... and now is running at 6% plus YoY."

Jeremy Barnum (CFO, JPMorgan) said the strength is broad, and took direct aim at the fashionable "K-shaped consumer" story:

"Spend is kind of fine, robust and across income segments. It seems like a bit of a tailwind there from tax refunds. Delinquencies are a little lower than we expected."

On the idea that the lower-income consumer is cracking, 

Barnum was blunt: the recent Fed data "doesn't give a lot of support to the K-shape narrative essentially."

Citi and Wells told the same story. 

Gonzalo Luchetti (CFO, Citi) highlighted this quarter’s consumer performance was “a broken record from a few quarters", and reiterated that "the U.S. consumer has been resilient." 

And, Mike Santomassimo (CFO, Wells Fargo) said the credit data is actually beating the models:

"The delinquency trends are better than we modeled most months, really every month that we've seen now for all year across each of the portfolios."

Americans are spending where it matters, keeping credit discipline, and holding the foundation of the economy remarkably stable.

For months, analysts have been waiting for cracks to appear in the credit cycle.

They're still waiting.

Delinquencies are normalizing. 

Gonzalo Luchetti (CFO, Citi): "we're seeing a stable credit environment." 

On the commercial side, Mike Santomassimo (CFO, Wells Fargo) was just as clear: "there's no systemic issues that we're seeing come through the portfolio."

Jeremy Barnum (CFO, JPMorgan) focused on what’s the leading indicator for consumer credit performance:

"When it comes to consumers’ credit performance, it's just about the labor market. And the labor market, we all see the same numbers, and it's been surprisingly resilient."

But, Jamie Dimon, never one to let a good quarter go uncaveated, kept one eye on the next turn:

"When there's a credit cycle and there will be a credit cycle, how will everybody perform? And I don't think it's going to be like a bell curve of performance. I think there'll be some outliers out there just like there were in the great financial crisis."

Credit is pristine today, but the dispersion when it turns will separate the disciplined lenders from everyone else. 

For now, the data affirms an economy on solid footing.

After subdued dealmaking in 2023-24, Wall Street's core engine is roaring again. 

Deal making activity is running at the fastest pace at most banks.

Goldman saw an increase in its IPO pipeline despite posting a record quarter. That’s not a market top folks — this bull market has legs. (Read the GS Q3 earnings highlights here). 

Goldman’s CEO noted the backlog increased to its highest level in 5 years and its second highest level on record.

And the driver is strategic:

"CEOs are dreaming and thinking about really large structurally scale-enhancing opportunities, and that's leading to just a lot more strategic activity."

David Solomon thinks that, even after this quarter’s outperformance, the peak is still ahead. 

“The sponsor stuff still has not accelerated, and candidly, it's going to come at some point, and that's still a big upside in these flows if the strategic dialogue takes hold.”

Overall, an increase in the strategic corporate activity signals higher business confidence. 

The banks aren't just watching the AI build-out. They're financing it, and it's fast becoming the largest capital-formation event of the cycle.

Start with the scale. 

Ted Pick (CEO, Morgan Stanley) laid out a forecast, and how it keeps getting revised up:

"The forecast for 2026 on data center CapEx was $575 billion, and it's coming in at about $850 billion. And that for 2027, the view was it would be around $700 billion, and now it's projected at $1.3 trillion. And 2028 could be at $1.5 trillion."

And critically: "You're basically looking at us being around 10% to 15% of the way through the investment cycle." 

Read that last sentence again… We are not late stage for datacenter build out, even if I like to take jabs at the insane valuations in certain industrial stocks.

Denis Coleman (CFO, Goldman Sachs) gave it a name:

"We are in the middle of an AI CapEx super cycle where there are demands on financing into every single financing instrument in every region of the world and across every single industry."

David Solomon explained why the banks are levered to it.

David Solomon (CEO, Goldman Sachs): "The AI investment cycle is expanding capital needs beyond core technology into infrastructure, energy and data centers, generating a ripple effect across industries. This is creating significant opportunities for banks to provide structuring, financing, risk management and capital markets execution across both public and private markets."

The best part, from the banks' vantage: this isn't a one-quarter trade. 

David Solomon is underwriting it over "a 3-year period or a 5-year period."

How about the big money center banks?

Charlie Scharf (CEO, Wells Fargo) drew the line sharply: "it's very different lending to a chip maker that has 80% margins where we get paid back in 1.5 years versus lending to someone else in the supply chain who it's going to take 15 years to get paid back... and hope that the LLM provider who's renting that space is going to be there." 

(Did Charlie just take a dig at OpenAI?)

Although banks haven’t been treated like it, they also seem to be the picks and shovels in the AI gold rush. 

Back to the economy.

We have stable credit, jobs, and demand. Dealmaking is accelerating. And AI is both the tailwind lifting the economy and the tool reshaping the banks from the inside. 

What’s the risk?

The risk is does a China based LLM model like Kimi or Deepseek undercut OpenAI and Anthropic pricing. That would hurt their stories, but not demand for semis more broadly, and not the productivity story under-pinning the economy.

We continue to hold a small weight on Goldman Sachs and Citi. Both of them delivered solid earnings, and have unrealized upside. 

We bought Goldman after we saw, in Lumida Invest, Ex-Bridgewater Senator David McCormick scooping it up at lows.

Goldman saw an increase in its IPO pipeline despite posting a record quarter. That’s not a market top folks — this bull market has legs.

Goldman has a real lever to expanding deal activity that a 15.5x multiple doesn’t justify. Their book has compounded every single quarter since 2020 with double digit top and bottom line growth. 

On a side note, we have added a politician tracker with a performance leaderboard, so you can see exactly which politician are leading. You can also explore their portfolio, see what they are buying, or offloading. The insights that AI can produce are unfathomable.

The inflation scare lost some oxygen this week.

June’s CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the first monthly decline since April 2020, bringing the YoY inflation rate down from 4.2% to 3.5%. 

Falling energy prices did most of the heavy lifting: gasoline prices dropped 9.7%, while the broader energy index fell 5.7%.

At first glance, it would be easy to dismiss this as an energy-driven report.

But the moderation was broader than the headline suggests.

Core CPI was unchanged in June. 

Shelter inflation rose just 0.1%, its smallest monthly increase since January 2021. 

Used-car prices, medical care, apparel, communications and motor-vehicle insurance all declined.

The Producer Price Index delivered a similar message.

Headline PPI fell 0.3% in June as prices for final-demand goods declined 1.4%. 

Energy prices fell 6.4%, including a 12% decline in gasoline. 

More importantly, the measure excluding food, energy and trade services increased just 0.1%, following a much hotter 0.8% reading in May.

That suggests inflationary pressure in the production pipeline is losing momentum.

But it would be premature to declare victory.

Headline PPI is still 5.5% higher than a year ago, while producer prices excluding food, energy and trade services are up 5.1%. 

The AI infrastructure buildout is increasing demand for electricity, semiconductors, construction materials and skilled labor. Tariffs could eventually pass higher input costs through to consumers. And the recent disinflationary support from gasoline will fade if oil prices rebound.

So the message is not that inflation has disappeared.

The message is that the Fed now has time.

July Rate hike odds on polymarket have now decreased to 4% from their peak of 35% earlier in the week. 

Our base case remains that the Fed will not raise rates this year. The Fed is likely to remain on hold and demand several more months of evidence before considering either direction.

After a 10%-plus run over the past three months, markets finally found a brick in the road.

The Nasdaq-100 took the hardest hit, falling 4.1% for the week.

The S&P 500 declined 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 held up considerably better, losing just 0.5%. 

It was the S&P 500’s first weekly loss in three weeks, and only its third since March.

Interestingly, this was not a broad liquidation of everything investors owned. It was a concentrated unwind in the market’s most crowded trade: semiconductors.

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 8.9% this week. 

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost roughly 10% and has entered bear-market territory after declining about 19% from its June peak. 

Even after the selloff, the semiconductor index is up about 60% this year which tells you just how far and how quickly this has run.

It was a great party. This week, the market sent the invoice.

We flagged the initial signs of this rotation few weeks back, in the newsletter, titled “Rotation Ahead?”, and that’s the tape playing now. 

While semis fell almost 9%, regional banks gained 2.2%, retail rose 1.5% and insurance advanced 1.1%. 

We are seeing expansion to other areas of the market.

The severity of the momentum unwind has been striking.

High-beta momentum is now approximately 33% below its all-time high, its largest drawdown since the 2022 bear market. 

Similarly, Goldman’s high-beta stock index has fallen more than 20% this month, putting it on course for its worst monthly performance since the Global Financial Crisis.

We can also see the same momentum unwind in earnings reaction, where TSMC, ASML, Samsung, all went down despite reporting earnings beat, and improved guidance. 

It’s notable to see these names decline despite strong news. That’s a sign that there aren’t marginal buyers in - everyone knows the story.

This happened to Nvidia after July 2024 — everyone got it, the name had a hangover for several months.

The fundamentals are in place. The names will be higher in, say, one year - but a rotation is likely.

And, There Were Signs.

There were four signs that marked the end of the Momentum Rally.

It's instructive to look back at these to gain perspective.

(1) The top of the market was immediately after the mini-euphoria of the Bicentennial.

Note: We saw this in the hype after the Trump inauguration whose speech featured space, rockets, and so forth.

(2) You can see the top in Industrial names most specifically.

Take a look at Corning (GLW) for example.

Back in March, we noted how the stock had shot beyond fundamentals, and the management team was doing exactly what you are supposed to do in such situation.

SELL!

The stock has returned back to Earth, losing about 45% from its peak.

Take a look at the extreme level of insider selling. You can see this in the www.lumidainvest.com app for any stock you hold.

(We are working on an AI Agent that proactively notifies you of these concerns.)

Also, take a look at Caterpillar. My kids won't believe Caterpillar once traded at 50x earnings… This is the trailing valuation chart. The valuation remains extended.

Other signs?

(3) The SpaceX IPO.

(4) The Kevin Warsh FOMC press conference.

When Kevin Warsh was nominated, that event marked the top in Gold.

Gold promptly dropped 10% after his nomination.

(I liked Kevin Warsh's press conference to be clear, but these can serve as 'focusing events' that cause the market to dance to a new tune.)

How to handle a parabolas?

The rule of thumb in markets is 'Sell Parabolas'.

They suck in the last marginal dollar, and force short covering.

When no one is left to buy, then it's over.

In hospice care, there is an equivalent to the parabola.

It's equivalent to the "last glow".

There's a burst of vitality and life, and then it's over.

While there is carnage on the momentum side, strength is returning to the quality camp. 

We could see it coming from afar.

Here’s our newsletter from June 28th, titled the aftermath of SpaceX IPO, where we flagged this rotation.

Or, the ledger of 21st, where we literally titled the newsletter, “Rotation Ahead?”.

Morgan Stanley is also on board on our thesis of a return to quality. (It’s always fun to lead the major investment banks.)

The quality factor has moved above its 50-day average after spending more than a year below it.

(Some examples in quality include insurance, medical devices, banks… Abbot Laboratories for example.)

It’s also the time to bring back our Warren Buffet vs Animal Spirits chart. 

This has finally gained some strength, and is now creating monthly highs after touching its lowest historical levels in early June.

Seasonality in Momentum

The timing of momentum unwind should not be entirely surprising either.

Momentum has a seasonal pattern. 

The Momentum factor data (going back to 1927) shows that July and August have historically been the weakest summer months for momentum, with slightly negative average returns.

Empirically speaking, the middle of the year is a natural point for traders to lock in gains, rebalance portfolios and reduce exposure to positions that have become too large. 

In plain English, investors spent the first half riding the winners.

Now they are taking some chips off the table.

Back during the semis rally, we flagged how Mags were the funding source for that trade. 

As the semis trade began rolling over from its June highs, companies, such as Microsoft and Meta, have started recovering. 

Nvidia has also held up better than other semis during this rotation. It is up around 1.5% MTD, while the SMH ETF is down 15%.

We continue to believe Nvidia is mispriced, as is Microsoft.

Apple has had the biggest move of the Mags MTD, and had briefly overtaken Nvidia as the largest company in terms of Market cap on Friday.

That strikes us an error in our view. 

Every time, markets end a week in red.

We have Ray Dalio sitting in an interview, predicting how we are closing the doomsday. 

Do we think the bull run is over?

No. 

We are seeing a rotation with money changing seats, and not really moving out of markets. 

That’s the key difference.

Inflation is getting cooler, odds of Fed hike are reducing, earnings have been strong. Capex spending by hyperscalers isn’t stopping.

Over the last few newsletter, we have discussed multiple sectors, which are trading at low valuations compared to their solid fundamentals. 

Consumer finance, Insurance and Biotech are a few examples. Look at the hyperlinks to read our picks in each sector. 

Milton Berg

Here’s some tactical support from Milton Berg.

Milton’s analysis provides useful context on the length of the bull run that began in April.

On April 14, the Russell 2000 completed an eight-out-of-nine-day advance and gained 12.1% over ten trading days. The S&P 500 rose 9.8% over the same period, its largest ten-day gain in more than five years.

Historically, similar combinations of powerful breadth and momentum have been followed by one-year S&P 500 gains of approximately 26.7% to 36.2%.

So far, the market’s maximum gain since the signal has been only 9.2%.

In other words, history suggests the longer-term advance may still have further to run.

Berg nevertheless expects a near-term momentum unwind and says he has taken short positions in SOXX and QQQ.

Those two views are not contradictory.

You can remain bullish on the broader market over the next year while expecting the most crowded technology and semiconductor trades to correct today. 

This is the same as our view too. The way to play is not buy the dip on the random AI semiconductor bottleneck meme stocks. Be patient, and wait for the froth to cool.

The market hit a brick this week.

It did not hit a wall.

For readers who want to examine Milton Berg’s complete historical study and current positioning, read the full report here.

In the semis rally, Medical devices had been left behind completely.

The Medical Devices ETF (IHI) now trades at 19.6x forward earnings, the lowest valuation in its five-year history. 

Its free-cash-flow yield has moved in the opposite direction, rising to ~4%, the highest level in its five-year history.

That is what happens when a quality sector becomes a funding source for momentum.

The bull case is straightforward. 

A strong labor market keeps more people insured. A resilient consumer is less likely to postpone elective procedures. 

Better credit conditions make it easier for hospitals to finance equipment, expand capacity and work through procedure backlogs.

Add an aging population, and the long-term demand has not gone anywhere.

The businesses kept growing. The valuations disappeared.

We bought two names in medical devices this week, alongside the IHI ETF.

Abbott (ABT) is a diversified healthcare company spanning medical devices, diagnostics, nutrition and established pharmaceuticals. 

Medical devices are now its largest business, accounting for roughly 45% of company revenue.

The stock trades at 17.4x forward earning, at the lowest levels in its five-year history.

They are growing revenues, and earnings, with projected revenues to grow 14%, higher than 5Y CAGR of 8%. 

Medical-device sales have delivered double-digit organic growth for 13 consecutive quarters, led by diabetes care and cardiovascular products.

Abbott gives investors diversified cash flows, defensive demand and medtech growth without requiring a traditional quality multiple.

Insulet (PODD) makes Omnipod, a wearable, tubeless insulin-delivery system that replaces injections and conventional tubed pumps. 

Its newest systems automatically adjust insulin delivery by communicating with a continuous glucose monitor.

The stock has fallen approximately 20% over the past three months, but the operating numbers continue to move in the opposite direction.

Here’s the fundamentals vs stock chart - see how the price has detached completed from fundamentals. 

PODD trades at 24.5x forward earnings, the lowest level in its five-year history.

Its 3.7% free-cash-flow yield is at the highest levels in its five-year history.

The company is forecasting a high double digits revenue and earning growth, with the last 5Y revenue CAGR sitting at nearly 32% - pristine.

First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 34% YoY, with Omnipod revenue up 37% and international Omnipod sales increasing 60%.

The addressable market is also expanding as Omnipod moves into additional countries and reaches more people with Type 2 diabetes, not only its traditional Type 1 customer base.

PODD still has a growth-stock income statement, but now selling at lowest ever valuations.

China’s Moonshot launched the Kimi K3 this week.

The company claims the model performs close to the best offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic. 

It is open-weight, can be downloaded and customized, and reportedly trails only Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 on overall capability.

The important point is not whether those benchmarks are perfect.

It is that Chinese models are closing the capability gap quickly.

Kimi K3 is also priced around Anthropic Sonnet levels, which is about 60-70% cheaper from the Fable 5 or GPT’s 5.6. 

And, this, all facts considered, is one of the more expensive Chinese models as Moonshot believes the model is good enough to charge a premium relative to other Chinese models.

This is bad news, but it can get a whole lot worse. 

As per Chamath Palihapitiya on CNBC, the cost of a standardized “barrel of intelligence” is $56 at Anthropic, $26 at OpenAI, around $1 for Google and xAI, and $0.5 for Chinese models.

OpenAI and Anthropic can bet that customers will continue paying more for reliability, safety and enterprise trust. 

But, a 100x spread can’t last forever.

And, it will shrink as cheaper models get better.

That’s 1-part of the bad news.

There is another problem for these LLMs– replicability.

Anthropic has created a useful product with Claude Cowork. 

But Microsoft can build a similar product directly into Windows and run it locally on AI-powered Dell laptops. 

Google can build its own version across Gmail, Docs, Drive and the rest of Workspace.

Google and Microsoft have a defined problem with the best people to solve it.

This is similar to how Microsoft responded to Netscape.

The startup proves the product matters. The incumbent copies it, bundles it and uses its existing distribution to win.

Microsoft and Google may move more slowly. But, they have more cash, more engineers and direct access to the customer.

Anthropic does not have that luxury.

Anthropic and OpenAI should try to go public as quickly as possible while its growth and scarcity premium are still high.

We have lived in the era of the 2400 Baud model,  8-bit RGB graphics, and dial-up Bulletin Board systems. 

We had our Atari pong moment with Chat GPT, now we have upgraded Legend of Zelda on a better rig. 

It’s not hard to imagine spending $5K per year for an always on personal assistant agent. 

It’s not hard to imagine spending $1K per year for an always on Investment Analyst Agent.

It’s not hard to imagine spending $15K per year for a Concierge medicine AI agent that teams up with your primary care physician. 

It’s not hard to imagine spending $20K per year for a Sales Development Rep Agent AI that also schedules and supervises your sales team. 

The inference speed and cost curves will get us there - perhaps in 12 to 18 months. 

and yet, the skepticism on AI remains thick. 

It is politically OK to criticize AI which shows you how far the public is from recognizing the potential of low-cost abundant intelligence. 

How was it back during the Dot Com era?

The internet had a couple ‘a ha’ moments: AOL, the Netscape browser, the chat room, e-commerce, and online brokerage. 

This time - the promise of distributed intelligence on demand is still not widely felt. 

But, it’s a fairly obvious trend that, unlike the consumer internet era, is attached to broad benefits for businesses large and small. 

We live in a funny time where the non-consensus view is betting that the future is bright. 

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says strong loan growth reflects households and businesses financing homes, equipment, and productive investment, not a return to reckless consumer borrowing.

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