Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Macro: Markets Traded the Payroll Report. Again.

Markets: Are Markets Calm?; Fear is Good!; How To Play The Midterms?; DRAM Is the Bottleneck; QXO: Worth Less Than Its Last Deal

Lumida Curations: Jensen Huang On AI Safety; Greg Brockman on AI Products and Scaling;  Sami Badri on Why Hyperscalers Can’t Slow Down

Spotlight

In this week’s Non-consensus Investing podcast, I sat down with Al Goldstein, founder of Enova, Avant and StoicLane, to talk about AI, banking and how he's using AI to buy and grow small businesses.

Al is a long-time friend. He’s a ‘Founder’s Founder’. He has taken a company public and he’s going to do it again in my view.

Here's what we covered:

  • Raising and educating kids in the age of AI

  • How AI is transforming Avant, from 100x engineers to voice agents

  • Elon Musk's reversal on AI risk and Jevons paradox

  • Midterms, populism and free markets

  • Al's family journey from the Soviet Union to Chicago

  • AI Services roll-ups

You can the watch show here. For more conversations like this one, subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Agentic Wealth Management is Coming

AI is following a transformation path: frontier LLMs, compute/inference, enterprise coding enterprise AI (see Harvey, Rogo, etc.) — and now, generalized consumer AI (see Muse, Instinct, Granola)

Specialized AI inside the regulatory perimeter is next. That’s why Anthropic is partnering with RIAs rather than choosing to take on a regulated status.

‘The Agents Are Coming’.

We can see how agents can go beyond mere automations instead own workflows intelligently.

The irony today — ‘Money is Dumb’. It doesn’t know your context or financial picture.

Our mission is to the Make Money Intelligent. We believe Your Money Should Know You.

Agents are a big part of that story.

If you’re a VC or Qualified Purchaser, click here to request access to the Lumida Virtual Dataroom. We’re telling the story in a fully AI-native way:

  • We built our own data room, no DocSend.

  • We built an AI avatar of me with more hair

  • We used Higgsfield to create an intro video

We suggest folks click this link below to see the Higgsfield video and what is now possible with AI and some initiative.

Lumida is kicking off an institutional round and we’re looking to partner with the best for the next stage.

Your Money Should Know You

Money 2020 FinTech Conference

The global FinTech community is set to descend upon Money 2020 this year on Oct 18th - thru the 2021s. I’ll be there as well meeting with entrepreneurs and VCs.

If you’d like to meet schedule 30 minutes here. (I can take meetings Sunday after 5pm PST.)

How To Get AI Native?

I have had multiple people ask me how to get AI Native.

Try this:

(1) Set the Foundation

First, build a google doc to capture your context. 

Narrate into it a complete braindump. 

Give it your context: your goals, projects, initiatives. Drop that Google Doc into your LLM

Now ask the AI to create a prioritized list of opportunities to focus on.

(That Google doc will help you experiment with new AIs and bring your context along.)

(2) Setup connectors.

Connect your LLMs to your project management tools, your email, Slack, Google Drive.

(3) Setup Grok Bot. Create a Meta Agent. 

Tell the Meta Agent you want it to review your Google Doc and assess what other agents should be built to accomplish your goals.

Spend some time giving the agent permissioned logins so it is most productive. 

Spawn mini agents. One of them should be an Executive Assistant AI. Another could be a Scheduler Agent. Another could be a Writer AI.

Repeat the process until you have at least 10 agents.

Note: You will need to spend time training these agents.

Ask the Meta Agent, 'Ask me questions based on my goals and context provided, and recommend suggestions.'

Install Cursor. Setup Cursor in Slack. Now your Grok agents can interact with you and your team in Slack. 

(Do that for Claude and other LLMs of course).

(4) Open up a Higgsfield account. 

Setup a link between Claude and Higgsfield. (Takes 1 minute.)

Spin up prompts from Claude and have it push to Higgsfield.

(5) Build Plugins

Suppose there is a task you perform repeatedly - a certain kind of investment analysis, a writing style, resume review.

Take a few hours to sculpt a plug-in with Claude.

Share it with your team.

(6) Vibe Code your Head of Recruiting, Head of HR, and Marketing

Load the JD into GPT Astra or Claude. 

Say 'I want to build this as an AI. My team should be able to see this. Provide focus and priorities for each day that my team can go to based on their role and objectives. Share updates to slack to the relevant channel...'

This should keep you busy :)

Return On Time

The return on time is going higher and higher. 

One of the signs that you are embracing AI is that you have less time than before, because you have more work. 

So, which world are we in?

(A) There is a one-time digestion phase where AI consumes times as workflow adapt

(B) The opp’y cost of not using AI is such that there is no foreseeable rate limiting diminishing return to using AI as it improves

Intuitively, most people will think (A). 

But, if you are pushing hard, the answer is (B). 

All these AI tools will need to be re-factored. 

Execution was once a serial. Now you can run parallel paths. 

The opportunity cost of AI is so high, that before going to bed, you should prompt AI to build something overnight.

Founders that have endurance are going to crush lifestyle Founders. 

(Aside: The higher return on time is consistent with greater productivity growth, higher returns on capital, and higher long-run interest rates.)

As a parent, you should show your kids how to design a game in AI. 

Teach them how to form a vision and create with AI.

It used to cost $0.50 cents a minute to make a long distance call. 

Now, it costs $0.09 cents a minute to spin up an on demand AI Avatar accessible across the world. 

The future is coming fast.

Coatue’s Take on Instinct is Flawed

Instinct raised at $10 Bn. That's up from $2.5 Bn from last month.

This is after Meta dropped Muse which is a direct competitor and already has powerful capabilities.

I'm reading Coatue's investment thesis on the name.

Coatue cites Instinct’s "unusual speed" — things like integrating Stripe payments, 1Password credentials, and location sharing in rapid succession.

That is not a heroic technical achievement.

Those are integrations - and they are commodity work.

It tells me that whomever at Coatue wrote, and their IR team and leadership, never vibe coded an app.

An integration requires an account (that's the slowest part as you need to KYC etc.). Then you get an API key.

I tasked a developer to ship a Stripe integration and a document OCR using Extract. 

He did it in a day or two, and only 20% of their time went towards that. 

(They had other cowork window agents focused on other tasks).

With coding agents, the bottleneck is no longer writing the code.

The heroic achievements going forward are in distribution and GTM, not coding. (And that's what Instinct did well - and where the focus should be...)

Relatedly, VCs should study the success of Higgsfield in distribution.

They have 150 people focused on producing content. 

The edge is not 'integrations' or 'speed of coding'.

That is a far more interesting lesson to learn.

Defense Tech: The Pentagon Is Building Around Autonomy

This week, the Pentagon announced a new command dedicated to drones and autonomous systems.

The command will be led by a four-star general and have the authority to scale drones, AI and battlefield software across the entire military.

It is expected to go live in October 2027.

That is a bigger deal than any single contract. 

A contract funds one program. A command has a seat at the table every time the budget gets written.

This means budgets for autonomous defense systems can go even higher.

The Pentagon's FY 2027 budget request proposes more than $74 billion for drones and counter-drone technology, triple the FY 2026 amount. 

Funding for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group is expected to rise from $225.9 million to as much as $54.6 billion. Even AI stocks would struggle to match that growth rate.

The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have moved warfare away from expensive legacy hardware toward cheap, expendable autonomous systems. 

When an inexpensive drone can threaten equipment worth millions, every military has to rethink what it buys.

We remain excited about defense tech. 

In private markets, 2018 to 2021 was the crypto cycle, and 2023 to 2025 was the AI cycle. 

The defense tech cycle is underway now.

If you'd like more details on accessing Defense Tech deals that have the potential to IPO, you can sign up here. (This isn't an offer to buy or sell securities.)

If you are an accredited investor or qualified purchaser, you can join our deals communication list through Lumida Deals. The windows on these private deals can be short, so joining beforehand matters.

(Disclosure: This communication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest in any fund or investment. Any such offer will be made only to eligible investors and only by means of definitive offering documents, which should be reviewed carefully in their entirety, and only in jurisdictions where permitted by law. Investments in private, early-stage companies are speculative and involve a high degree of risk, including the risk of illiquidity and the total loss of capital; such investments are suitable only for qualified investors who can bear these risks. Any statements regarding the company's business, strategy, or prospects are forward-looking, are based on information believed to be reliable but not independently verified, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that any investment objective will be achieved. Nothing herein should be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice; recipients should consult their own advisors before making any investment decision.)

Macro

Markets Traded the Payroll Report. Again.

The September jobs report came in soft. Payrolls rose 29,000 against 84,000 expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

This caused the rate hike odds to collapse. Polymarket now prices an 82% chance the Fed holds in October, with hike odds down to 18%. 

Bad news was good news for the market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied at the open, both rising as much as 1.6% intraday.

A month ago, a strong payrolls print sent markets lower on hike fears. This month, a weak one sent them higher on hike relief. The former dip didn’t last, what makes you think the latter rise would?

The market is trading the payroll report like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. Wake up, make the same mistake, repeat. At least Phil Connors learned something by the end of the movie.

As we said a month ago, payrolls is a survey with a response rate. The confidence intervals are wide, and the revisions can swallow the headline.

One print tells you very little. The trend tells you a lot.

The Labor Market Isn't Weak.

Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week of September 25, the lowest since July.

Claims have now been below 200,000 for seven weeks this year. You have to go back to 1969 to find a year with more.

The four-week average sits at 200,000. That is exactly what a Strong labor market looks like.

Continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. Fewer people are filing for jobless claims, and fewer are staying on benefits.

Layoff announcements tell the same story.

Challenger job cuts fell 18% m/m and 20% y/y to 43,281 in September, the lowest September total since 2022.

Notice the two lines in the chart below. Every recession in the last 30 years shows up as a spike in both. Today, both are flat near the lows.

Productivity Is Why the Job Market Is Strong

The job market is holding up for a simple reason. Workers are more productive than they have been in decades.

Since mid-2022, US labor productivity has grown at 2.9% annualized. That is stronger than any decade since the 1960s, and almost three times the 1.1% pace of the 2010s.

When each worker produces more, each worker is worth more to the business.

That changes how companies behave.

You don't lay off the people who are making you more money. That is why claims are sitting near 57-year lows and layoff announcements keep falling.

AI is part of that story, and its share should grow as agents move from pilots into production.

And history says a more productive worker is more compelling to hire. Look at the following chart. 

Periods of strong productivity growth have typically been followed by stronger payroll growth over the next three years.

The chain is straightforward.

More productive workers make businesses more profitable. More profitable businesses expand. Expanding businesses hire.

There is a bonus for the Fed, too. Productivity is disinflationary. 

When businesses can produce more without raising prices, inflation cools without the Fed having to break anything.

A labor market powered by productivity is the kind that bends without breaking.

Don't trade the payroll report. Trade the trend.

Markets

Are Markets Calm?

The S&P 500 is up about 1% over the past month, despite all the noise in yields and oil.

That calm is misleading. Tech is holding up the index. Over the last month, Technology (XLK) is up 9.0%. 

Every other sector is down. Materials (XLB) fell 7.3% while Financials (XLF) are down 6.9%. 

Even the best of the rest, Industrials (XLI) and Communication Services (XLC), are down about 1.5%.

The median S&P 500 stock now trades 16% below its 52-week high. 

Goldman says breadth is at its weakest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, which it remarks as the ‘profit-warning’ mode.

The share of stocks above their 50-day moving average tells the same story. 

The share of stocks below 50-DMA is almost at the same levels as in the 2022 bear market bottom and the 2025 tariff tantrum bottom.

Those were moments of maximum pain.

Something has to give. Either the index catches down to the average stock, or the average stock catches up to the index.

We think the latter should happen soon.

Fear is Good!

Three weeks ago, we flagged crowded optimism as the strongest near-term bear case. 

That optimism is gone.

Goldman's Sentiment Indicator has dropped to -0.9, close to one standard deviation below average, from above +1.5 earlier this year.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index has also declined to 31, firmly in Fear. 

Investors went from euphoria to fear in about a month, while the index barely moved.

And that is exactly what makes this setup constructive.

Look at the following chart. We are at 48.1 in consumer sentiment index, which is almost the same as its 2022 lows.

Notice how markets turn every time sentiment has reached a bottom. In the 9 sentiment troughs since 1971, markets average 24.1% in the next 12 months.

Weak breadth doesn't stay weak forever. And, when it turns, it tends to turn sharply, because the sellers are already out.

We've seen this recently. 

Four weeks ago, we flagged that tech momentum had closed in the 1st percentile of its history. Tech is up 9% since, with semis leading the way.

And, Leopold is back gobbling up memory stocks. I had an FSD about Micron earnings titled ‘Memory’ here. We do agree that the demand for memory will be insatiable and overweighting this theme makes sense.

The rest of the market is now where tech was in early September.

The difference from 2000 is what's happening to earnings.

Today, earnings are doing the opposite.

Corporate profit margins are at record levels, helped by AI demand and tariff refunds. 

Earnings beat rates are at levels only surpassed in the post-COVID rebound. 

Earnings rising while prices move sideways has a useful side effect: stocks get cheaper without anyone having to panic.

Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities now trade at below-average P/E ratios relative to the past decade. 

See the chart image below, and notice how these sectors are trading near their lowest P/E valuation over the last year.

The reason why these are trading down — long-term interest rates have moved higher?

BUT… these firms are no longer rate sensitive. Goldman Sachs will report record earnings on IPO and financing activity for example. CFOs have re-financed their debt.

But that’s expected - the re-rating of other sectors is creating bargains as their fundamental earnings trajectory hasn’t changed — not even in the short-run unless you are a mortgage originator or a multi-family developer.

And, on mortgages - it’s hard to get finance. But, that’s also adding income to consumer pockets. What otherwise would be spent on housing is being spent on other services.

The near-term support for markets is mid-term seasonality. 

Since 1928, Q4 has been the strongest quarter of the year, averaging 2.9%. 

If we zoom in on mid-term years, the S&P 500 Q4 return is almost double, averaging 5.6%, with positive returns 20 out of 24 times. 

What follows Q4 is the third year of the presidential cycle, which is historically the best of the four, with a median gain of 18.1%.

Earnings season starts in mid-October, right as the seasonal tailwind arrives.

The index has been carried by one sector. The next leg up should have more company.

How To Play The Midterms? 

The midterms are about a month away.

JPMorgan looked at how industries performed relative to the S&P 500 in the month before and the month after every midterm election since 1990. 

Look at the chart below.

Semiconductors are the standout. They have beaten the index by 7.2% on average across the full window, before and after the vote. 

Software (+4.2%) and Technology Hardware (+3.7%) also follow.

The categories are also not rate sensitive.

That fits our positioning. We remain overweight semis, as earnings continue to come in strong while valuations are more reasonable.

You can also notice a more interesting pattern in the group that dips before the vote and rallies after it.

Consumer Durables & Apparel lags the index by 0.6% in the month before the election, then beats it by 2.9% in the month after. 

Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail also swings from -2.0% to +1.5%. Media, Transportation, and Health Care Equipment aksi follow the same shape.

Investors sell cyclicals into the uncertainty and buy them back once the result is known.

Some of that pre-election dip has already happened. 

Materials (-7.3%), Utilities (-6.0%), and Consumer Discretionary (-4.0%) are among the worst-performing sectors over the past month.

The defensives do the opposite. 

Telecom Services beats the index by 1.1% before the election, then lags by 2.4% after. Household & Personal Products goes from +1.6% to -0.2%.

There is, however, a caveat. Since 1990, there have been only nine midterm elections, so these are averages from a small sample. 

Uncertainty gets priced into the cyclicals before the vote and comes out after it. The market doesn't care much who wins. The market cares that the question is answered.

With prediction markets already putting the odds of a Democratic House above 90%, much of that answer is priced in.

(The Datacenter construction will not stop simply because AOC is campaigning on it ;)

DRAM Is the Bottleneck

Micron's blowout quarter was the least surprising news of the week.

A month ago, Dell's COO listed his shortages: "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND."

And, Nvidia's CFO flagged "extreme pricing conditions" in memory.

Revenue rose 379% YoY to a record $54.2 billion, well ahead of the $50.8 billion consensus. 

Gross margins widened to 87%. Micron then guided next quarter's revenue to $61.5 billion, against roughly $57 billion expected.

The stock barely moved. The last two quarters, Micron’s stock corrected after reporting earnings. It's up ~243% this year, second only to SanDisk among semiconductor companies, so positioning was already high.

We saw a similar phenomenon with Nvidia’s results. Still, these are names worth owning for the long-term.

Manish Bhatia (President and COO, Micron) said, "we are seeing stronger demand drivers than we've ever seen before." 

More than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are already committed, which he said "allows us to shift our conversations on allocation with our customers out to 2028."

And where does it end? 

"We really don't have line of sight to when supply and demand balances."

Read that line twice. A memory company is telling you it can't see the end of the shortage.

What's driving the demand is the same thing Jensen flagged last month: agents.

Bhatia noted "the realization that agentic workloads are executed across CPU has been a big driver," and every one of those CPUs needs memory.

I noted two weeks ago that I believe Agents are bigger than the Computer. I know that sounds crazy… but I do believe that’s the case. The Computer is going to be a hub - not the primary mode of interaction.

He even pointed to Meta's Muse as an example of how fast agentic workloads are reaching consumers.

And the real demand may be even bigger than what shows up in shipments.

Customers are "choosing to maximize the compute silicon shipments they can make with the available memory supply that they have." 

In plain terms, AI systems are shipping with less memory than they were designed for. If more supply showed up, Bhatia said, "it would easily get put into use."

Micron has signed 10 new long-term agreements this quarter, bringing the total to 26.

They cover roughly a third of its bit volume through 2030, and some commitments now extend beyond it.

Bhatia called the agreements "transformational for us in terms of being able to match supply with future demand and to be able to invest with confidence."

And, here is where the commodity argument starts to break.

Commodity buyers shop around for the cheapest price every quarter. Micron's customers are signing multi-year contracts just to make sure they get supply.

Commodity products are interchangeable. Micron is co-designing custom HBM with Nvidia, which Scott DeBoer (President and Chief Technology and Product Officer, Micron) called "the first major custom HBM product out in the market."

That also means Nvidia is likely to continue purchases for their roadmap for years to come. Nvidia is clever to work with Micron which is also an American semi brand. Jensen knows how to play the geopolitical game.

He’s following the cues from JD / Trump.

At under 7x forward earnings, with most of next year's output already committed, the market is pricing a bust that management can't see.

You can also read transcript insights for Micron and others on the Lumida Investment App. Our AI reads every earnings transcript and summarizes the key insights from management, so you don't have to sit through the full call. 

Earnings transcripts can be the best source of information you get all week. Check out for yourself. Download the app here.

QXO: Worth Less Than Its Last Deal

Brad Jacobs wrote a book called How to Make a Few Billion Dollars. The market is pricing his latest company as if he forgot how.

QXO is Jacobs' third big roll-up. His earlier ventures, United Rentals and XPO, generated outsized returns. 

Building products distribution suits his playbook because it is highly fragmented with little technology, which lets scale and tech leadership drive value. 

He has moved fast. QXO bought Beacon Roofing, then Kodiak Building Partners, then completed its $17 billion acquisition of TopBuild on July 1. It now ranks No. 1 in insulation, No. 2 in roofing and No. 1 in waterproofing in North America by revenue. 

The stock hasn't cooperated. 

Shares have fallen from a 52-week high of about $27.60 to around $12, a drop of more than 55%.

Now the price is the interesting part.

QXO trades at about 91% of book value, its market cap is below what it paid for TopBuild.

Put simply, you can buy the whole company for less than it paid for its last acquisition. Beacon, Kodiak and the rest of the platform come free.

The business underneath is growing. 

Q2 revenue rose 70% YoY to $3.25 billion, beating the $3.19 billion estimate. Margins compressed on mix shift and upfront investments, which is normal for a company stitching together three large businesses at once.

Look at the chart below. The blue line is forward EPS, now at about $0.48, up roughly 60% since late February. The black line is the share price, which fell by more than half over the same period.

So why is the stock down? Rates and housing.

The market treats QXO as a housing proxy. Higher rates mean fewer homes built and fewer roofs replaced, so the stock gets sold with everything else rate-sensitive.

The contrarian view is that higher rates actually help a roll-up.

Expensive debt pushes private equity buyers, who compete for the same acquisition targets as QXO, to the sidelines. 

That leaves QXO to integrate its acquisitions, optimize operations, pay down debt and pursue tuck-in deals at lower multiples in a less competitive M&A market.

It's the same logic as the GPU auction we wrote about last week. One less bidder means a better price for whoever is left at the table.

Higher rates help QXO buy cheaper. Lower rates help housing recover. Either way, QXO has a path.

The real question is execution, and QXO has addressed it. 

Ken West, a Honeywell veteran with more than two decades of running and integrating large industrial businesses, joined as president and COO on September 1.

He reports to Jacobs and owns the operating plan across the businesses.

Jacobs finds the deals. West makes them work.

The bear case? Leverage and digestion. The TopBuild deal was funded with a $3.0 billion incremental term loan, $3.0 billion in senior notes, preferred equity and cash. 

Three major integrations in about a year is a lot to swallow, especially if housing stays soft longer than expected. 

Roll-ups are great until you have to digest them. QXO just ate three large meals in a row.

Still, the setup is hard to ignore. We get a founder with two decades of roll-up wins, a market-leading platform, and rising earnings estimates, all at below book value.

Lumida Curations

You can now view Lumida Curations at the Lumida Invest App. Curated insights delivered on time. Download the app here.

Jensen Huang: Never Trust That It's Contained

Jensen Huang argues that AI agents should be both locked down and watched in real time, and that companies should manage them like employees, with set permissions and constant oversight.

Greg Brockman: Some Products Scale With the Model, Most Don't

Greg Brockman, co-founder and the President of OpenAI, argues that AI products built to patch a model's weaknesses fade with each upgrade, while the lasting ones get better as models get smarter.

Sami Badri: The Hyperscalers Have Always Done This

Cisco's Sami Badri argues that hyperscalers have always spent heavily ahead of big shifts, and that today's AI capex is the same playbook at a larger scale, because being late costs more than overspending.

Meme

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