Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week: 

Macro: The Fed Thinks the Economy Is Running Hot; USA's Dominance

Markets: Delta: The Consumer Is Still Flying; Earnings Season Is the Catalyst?; OpenAI's Airline Problem; The Rate-Sensitives Have Bottomed; SpaceX’s $40 Billion Nvidia Order; Lockheed Martin: The Market Forgot About Missiles

Lumida Curations: Matt Garman On Agentic Demand From Infrastructure; Jamie Dimon On How To Fix The Debt Problem; Kevin Mandia on AI-led Cyber Attacks 

I will be attending the Money 2020 conference next week (18th-21st Oct) in Las Vegas. 

Exciting event to meet with entrepreneurs and VCs, and see what’s new in the AI world. I have been attending it for about a decade now.

If you are around, and would like to meet, schedule 30 minutes here. (I can take meetings Sunday after 5pm PST.) 

This video you see below was created by Higgsfield. What might have taken a production crew $50,000 was built with a few hundred dollars.

We recommend you click here to check out the video:

AI is following a transformation path:

First, we see the frontier LLMs. The compute/inference investment (Coreweave).

Then enterprise coding (Cognition, Replit, etc.)

Then vertical enterprise AI (see Harvey, Rogo, etc.) — and now, generalized consumer AI (see Muse, Instinct, Granola).

What’s next?

Specialized AI inside the regulatory perimeter is next.

That’s why Anthropic is partnering with RIAs rather than choosing to take on a regulated status.

Defense Tech is one of the most compelling investment themes we’re tracking.

Defense Tech is an AI theme in disguise.

Governments are the customers.

Geopolitical tensions are accelerating global demand for security and autonomous systems.

Join us for a private Lumida investor gathering this Wednesday evening NYC, where we’ll have a live interview with Dan Madden, Principal at Squadra Ventures.

Dan Madden leads defense and frontier tech investments and strategy. Previously Dan served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the RAND Corporation, U.S. House of Representatives, and the U.S. Marine Corps.

He flew into Ukraine into 2023 and surveyed the technologies on the ground… I expect he’ll have great stories to tell.

An intimate, invite-only evening.

Space is limited, and all RSVPs are subject to approval.

https://luma.com/lb9371kg

ex-a16z partner Sriram Krishnan is raising a $500 MM AI Defense fund.

Defense Tech is an AI theme wearing different cloths.

Sovereigns will be the largest spenders on AI, and we’re going to see that ramp up over the next few years.

Sovereigns around the world are investing in defense and want less reliance on American defense tech.

The dirty secret: the big defense contractors run the US defense tech supply chain on 600 smaller players, many of whom import from China.

That supply chain will have to be rebuilt. The question is who owns the companies that rebuild it.

We’ve been writing about Sovereign AI and defense tech since 2024, and own names like Shield AI.

The defense tech cycle is underway now.

If you'd like access to Defense Tech deals that have the potential to IPO, you can sign up here. (This isn't an offer to buy or sell securities.)

If you are an accredited investor or qualified purchaser, you can join our deals communication list through Lumida Deals. The windows on these private deals can be short, so joining beforehand matters.

(Disclosure: This communication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest in any fund or investment. Any such offer will be made only to eligible investors and only by means of definitive offering documents, which should be reviewed carefully in their entirety, and only in jurisdictions where permitted by law. Investments in private, early-stage companies are speculative and involve a high degree of risk, including the risk of illiquidity and the total loss of capital; such investments are suitable only for qualified investors who can bear these risks. Any statements regarding the company's business, strategy, or prospects are forward-looking, are based on information believed to be reliable but not independently verified, and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that any investment objective will be achieved. Nothing herein should be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice; recipients should consult their own advisors before making any investment decision.)

Hum a song you love.

You know the next note before it arrives.

How?

Association.

But association is just recalling the next note. That's circular.

Unless association is biology.

Memory is synaptic wiring. Neurons that fire together wire together.

So, the song lives in the connections.

But wiring explains recall. Wiring doesn't explain invention.

Hum something from whole cloth.

The mind still finds the next note.

There's no sheet music, and yet the note arrives - and it sounds right.

Machines can do this now.

Music models predict the next note the way an LLM predicts the next word.

So is the mind just a prediction engine?

In part.

The brain releases dopamine twice when we hear music we love - in anticipation of the peak, and again when it arrives.

The pleasure of music is the pleasure of prediction.

But here man and machine split.

The machine plays the most probable note.

Mozart plays the improbable note that feels inevitable.

That is his creative insight.

So where do these patterns come from?

Biology says they survive because they work on us. 

There is tension and release. There is a rhythm near the pace of a heartbeat.

Plato says they exist before anyone plays them. The number 3 exists whether or not there are three apples.

What if both are true?

Pythagoras noticed the intervals that sound beautiful are simple ratios.

The octave is 2:1. The fifth is 3:2.

The ratios came first. The ear came later, and tuned itself to an order already there.

Maybe biology isn't the alternative to the forms, it is the instrument that hears them.

And if the forms come first, the composer is not an inventor. He is a discoverer.

That's why Mozart doesn't sound composed. He sounds found.

Michelangelo said the statue was already inside the marble. His job was to remove everything that wasn't the statue.

Plato went further.

In the Meno, Socrates draws a geometry proof out of an uneducated boy using only questions.

Learning, Plato concluded, is recollection.

Maybe that is what humming is.

When you hum a melody no one has written, you are not creating.

You are remembering something you never learned.

Markets work the same way. 

The consensus is the probable note. The great investment is the note no one expected - that everyone recognizes in hindsight.

Life works the same way.

Most of life is played on the likely note.

The moments that matter are the ones that surprise us 

and then feel like they could never have gone any other way.

Last week, markets cheered a weak payrolls report as a sign the economy was cooling and the Fed could step back.

We told then the payrolls report shouldn’t be relied upon. And, the Fed minutes, released this week, second us.

Their read is that the economy is getting stronger, despite Consumer confidence in the doldrums.

The clearest sign is in the Fed’s economic forecast. They raised their outlook for growth and the labor market from July. 

Fed now sees GDP growing faster than the economy’s potential through 2028, with unemployment holding below its long-run level through 2029.

In other words, the data kept beating the Fed’s expectations, and the staff had to catch up.

What’s Driving Growth?

AI investment.

FOMC participants said the scale and pace of the AI buildout “had continued to surprise to the upside.” 

We showed two weeks ago that 2027 hyperscaler capex estimates have risen about 75% in nine months. 

The Fed is seeing the same thing. 

Domestic final purchases were notably higher in the first half of 2026, and has been rising faster than GDP. 

Several participants said the economy’s underlying momentum has increased. This is helping business earnings, alongside lighter regulation and tariff refunds. 

Interestingly, the Fed's equity desk repeated our view on the markets.

Here’s a verbatim of what the minutes said: “the rise in equity prices this year was entirely attributable to strong actual and expected corporate earnings, while price-to-earnings multiples had declined.”

Nice to have the Fed’s market desk on our distribution list.

It’s quality on sale, guys.

The Consumer Is Spending

On consumer, Fed’s view was consistent with what we have seen in data over the year. 

FOMC participant called consumer spending solid, and they named the reason: “stock market gains, particularly for higher-income households.”

That fits what we wrote two weeks ago about the Boomers. 

The households that own the assets are the ones doing the spending, and higher rates are paying them more interest income.

Back in they day, Boomers used to complain about high rates. Now they cash the interest checks and book a cruise.

More recent data shows consumers are keeping up with their high spending. Same-store sales rose 8.3% y/y in the week of October 2, well above the 5.8% average for 2025.

What’s keeping the customers strong?

Labor Market

The Labor Market Is Getting Tighter

A majority of Fed participants said the labor market had strengthened recently, with job gains modestly outpacing growth in the labor force.

All participants said “risks to the labor market had diminished”.

That’s quite a shift. 

Earlier this year, the worry was that AI would push unemployment higher. Now the Fed is debating whether the labor market is too tight.

Someone should send the FOMC minutes summary to Citrini. 

It seems that AI’s biggest impact on the labor market has been creating jobs for people who are concerned about about AI’s impact on the labor market :)

Unemployment was 4.1% in July and August, 0.3pp below its average in the second half of last year. Participation also rebounded in August after unusually low readings.

Recent weekly data says that momentum carried into September.

ADP estimates private payrolls rose 23,750 in the week through September 19, up from an upwardly revised 22,500. That’s the fifth straight weekly acceleration and the strongest gain in three months.

Put that next to the 29,000 September payrolls print the market traded last week. One is a monthly survey with wide error bands. The other is a weekly trend that keeps rising.

This week, the US administration cut Microsoft, Adobe and six of the largest IT outsourcing firms off from the green card pipeline. 

The Labor Department won’t accept new applications from these companies and has stopped work on pending ones.

JD singled out Microsoft. He said the company laid off about 6,000 US workers last year while obtaining 6,300 H-1B visas and almost 3,000 green cards. 

The timing is not subtle. You have midterms in two months, and with Trump’s approval rating down to 34%, he has to do everything that can turn odds in his favor.

But, is the policy actually good for the US or the average American?

Would Nvidia exist without Jensen? No.

Would Google exist without Sergey? No.

Would driverless cars, Starlink, Grok Bot and Neuralink exist without Elon? No.

All three were born outside the United States.

Were they all massive job and wealth creators for Americans? Yes.

Would these companies have been born ex nihilo without that founder leadership? No.

The easiest way for the US to maintain tech dominance is to attract and retain top talent.

China, India and Europe envy the US ability to skim talent at will. Let’s not hand them the ladle.

Earnings season is underway, and Delta gave a good guide on what to expect.

Revenue rose 16% to $17.6 billion. EPS came in at $1.72, almost flat compared to last year, with a 9.4% operating margin. 

Fuel bill pressured the company, coming in at $1.6 billion, about $500 million higher than expected.  

For the full year, Delta expects roughly $4.5 billion in pretax profit, close to last year, even as its fuel bill rises 60% to $6 billion. 

Delta’s transcript helps us see the strength of the premium customer, and also quite indicates how other leisure names might report. 

So, Who’s Flying?

ED Bastian (CEO) said Delta’s customers, the top 40% of US households, are “nearly $40 trillion wealthier than they were just a few years ago.”

This cohort is “increasingly prioritizing experiences, including travel.”

They’re also paying up. 

Delta has taken fares up roughly 20% this year, and Bastian pointed to “the limited amount of resistance that we see.” 

Premium revenue rose 18%. Premium capacity grew 6-7%, and premium load factors still rose almost 2 points, without discounting.

Main cabin is recovering, too. Unit revenue grew in the high teens, the third straight quarter of improvement.

The outlook is even better.

Forward cash sales rose nearly 20% in the quarter, the fastest growth since 2022. 

Delta is already more than 60% booked for the December quarter and guides revenue up about 20% on roughly 3% capacity growth.

Early bookings for Q1 also look similar.

These metrics tell you the consumer is strong, and spending - good enough to keep earnings intact.

We continue to own Delta which benefits as the Baby Boomers spend on travel.

The earnings season officially started this week starting with the banks.

Next week we will be writing about how the banks beat expectations.

What should you expect?

Delta earnings, the FOMC comments, and all other data we have received in the last few weeks point to firm demand and steady margins, which indicate a strong earnings season ahead.

We saw corporate profit margins reach record high in the second quarter at 11.9% after excluding mark-to-market gains. 

Analysts are expecting margins to be even higher in the third quarter.

Unit profits are the reason why.

Look at the chart below. 

Selling prices are rising faster than labor costs per unit of output. That’s productivity and pricing power working together. 

Earnings growth has been extraordinary in 2026.

S&P 500 EPS was nearly 30% higher y/y in Q1 and more than 50% in Q2. 

Q3 is setting up the same way. Analysts are estimating Q3 EPS growth at 30.6% from about 28.4% previously.

These are insane EPS growth numbers (driven by Mag7 cloud business growth, memory, and semis). 

And, it’s not only cloud and semis at work. Growth is broadening, too. 

Analysts expect all 11 S&P 500 sectors to grow both revenue and earnings y/y. That has happened only once before in the past 25 years, in Q2 2021. 

A good earning season can lift the market sentiment, and bring back the capital that has exited the market over the last few weeks.

Here are two BofA charts to show you how sentiment has now reset.

Last week, investors poured the most money into money market funds since April 2020, and the most into Treasury funds since April 2025.

Look at those dates. April 2020 came right after the COVID crash, and April 2025 was the tariff tantrum. 

Both times, investors ran for safety near the lows.

And, the market moved sharply higher from there.

The reason?

That cash in treasuries is dry powder. 

Investors who hid in money markets and Treasuries while earnings hit records will need a reason to come back.

A strong earnings season gives them one.

The big banks report next week, and their results will set the tone for the rest of the season.

AI stocks sold off on Thursday after the FT reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was around $50 billion at the end of September. 

The market had been working off a number closer to $70 billion.

Oracle fell 5-6%, Nvidia and AMD dropped more than 3%, and CoreWeave and Microsoft traded lower as well.

By Friday, the story had softened.

It turns out much of the gap came down to accounting. Anthropic reports revenue closer to gross, while OpenAI reports net of what its cloud partners take.

OpenAI’s revenue now has more versions than ChatGPT. 

On a like-for-like basis, OpenAI is still growing around 70%, which allows markets to breathe.

Tech bounced, and Nvidia rose 1.9%. 

I wouldn’t worry about OpenAI revenue — the AI train has left the station — we’re going to see continued demand for semis and significant productivity unlocks.

One day I will do a demo of the various agents we have built. It’s still early innings…

These agents are a new form factor, and they will displace the computer as a primary means of execution. (By the way, computer sales are down about 20% YOY.)

But, why is the growth slowing?

OpenAI is cutting prices, and it has to. Anthropic is doing the same.

OpenAI has cut prices 60-80% across its models. It's selling more tokens, but the price per token keeps dropping, and that drags on revenue growth.

Why cut prices? Competition. 

Capitalism is beautiful.

Open-weight models are cheaper and getting better, and the neoclouds serving them are catching up. 

Look at OpenRouter. It routes your query to the lowest-cost provider that can do the job well. That's market discipline enforced on the whole system.

Being the brand name in AI doesn't protect you when the router doesn't care about your brand. 

That's part of why OpenAI keeps losing ground to Anthropic, despite its head start.

Frontier Labs Are Airlines

The frontier labs have the same business model as an airline.

Heavy fixed costs. Low marginal costs. High marginal revenue.

If the plane is taking off, you want as many passengers on board as possible, because your fixed costs are locked in. 

And businesses like that tend to take on debt. Airlines do it all the time, so do the frontier labs.

There's an old joke about airlines: you're only as smart as your dumbest competitor. One carrier cuts fares, and everyone follows.

Same with tokens.

Here's the funny part.

Airlines were growth stocks once. Pan Am and TWA were the hot names in the 1920s. So were grocery chains. Nobody thinks of Safeway as a growth stock today, but it was one.

LLMs will go down that path at some point. Not tomorrow. It'll take time. But that's the inevitable trajectory over the next 5 to 8 years is my finger in the air guess.

The Value Is in the Applications

What OpenAI and Anthropic need is an application layer that generates more demand for compute.

The VCs are already building it. They aren't doing it for the labs, but it follows. 

Granola, Instinct and Higgsfield are good examples. 

You're seeing real consumer and enterprise value, and that creates a sustainable economic flywheel around these services.

These applications aren't classic apps in the App Store. They're omni-channel. They meet you where you are, keep your context and follow you on your terms.

It's the "n of 1" personalized economy people talked about in the dot-com era that never came to life. 

Now it's arriving.

Take AI influencers. The videos aren't great yet; you can spot the flaws. But I showed someone an AI video we made recently, and they couldn't tell. With good editing, you're already there.

Soon, we will have Influencers, who need a GPU, more than a ring light.

Soon, you'll rent an AI influencer that has read every semi-analysis write-up Dylan Patel has published, along with every semiconductor analyst's note, and it will analyze your positions and the news for you. 

That's coming, and it's coming fast. Six months from now, this will look quite different.

A lot of people think we're in 1998. I used to think that too. But you can make the case that agents are so transformational that it's actually 1995 all over again, another S-curve on top of the first one.

I think that's pretty probable.

Long-term rates are still climbing, but the sectors that sold off on higher rates have stopped going down with them.

Utilities, financials and consumer discretionary have all turned higher, even as yields keep rising. 

That is usually how bottoms form – the price stops reacting to the bad news before the bad news is over.

The selloffs followed a simple script: rates go up, so rate-sensitive stocks go down. 

Utilities trade like bond proxies. Financials get lumped in with anything tied to rates. Consumer names get sold on the fear that higher borrowing costs will choke spending.

The problem with the script is that the earnings never followed it.

Start with utilities. 

XLU sold off hard over the summer as yields rose. 

But the utilities today are not sleepy bond proxies. They are the power suppliers to the AI buildout. 

Data centers need electricity around the clock, and power has become the constraint on how fast new capacity comes online. That demand doesn’t care where the 10-year yield sits.

Utilities used to be what our fathers owned for the dividend. Now they’re what Jensen needs to keep the lights on.

My preference in IPPs is Vistra Corporation (VST) based on relative value and earnings growth potential. 

Nuclear and natural gas don’t pressure household utility bills and face less regulation. The mid-term risks around the datacenter theme I believe are priced in now.

We did a comprehensive analysis on Vistra a few weeks back, read here. 

Financials tell the same story as XLU. They sold off because of higher rates, but higher rates won’t hurt their earnings, apart from mortgage originators. 

CFOs refinanced their debt years ago. IPO and financing activity is picking up. And the consumer is strong, which keeps loan books healthy. 

Fed minutes noted that credit card limits keep rising. Banks don’t raise limits for borrowers they’re worried about.

Q3 should be another strong quarter for the group. 

We see a similar pattern in Consumer discretionary. XLY retested its lows and held.

A successful retest tells you the sellers are exhausted. The people who wanted out are out. Meanwhile, the consumer keeps spending.

The trigger for the next leg is the same for all three groups. 

We think the 10-year yield is topping out, and oil should ease as the Middle East de-escalates heading into the midterms. 

When energy costs and rates roll over, the selloff unwinds quickly, because the businesses underneath never broke.

There are great bargains out there for investors willing to look beyond large-cap tech.

SpaceX plans to raise $40 billion, led by Apollo, to buy Nvidia AI chips. 

The package is made up of about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt, and will likely use the GPUs as collateral. Funny how ten years ago, the only people accepting graphics cards as collateral were crypto miners. Now it’s Apollo.

Musk said last month that xAI’s Colossus 2 data center could more than double the number of Nvidia chips it uses by December, and that the company plans to use Nvidia hardware exclusively. 

Remember when Nvidia was trading at 17x earnings and 60% EPS growth? 

It still remains the cheapest and most efficient bet on physical AI.

Why is SpaceX shelling out $40 Bn?

Because the ROIC is positive.

Why is Apollo lending?

Because the ROIC is positive.

Why are H100s still in use despite their depreciable life?

Because the ROIC is positive.

On Friday, Lockheed Martin (LMT) revealed the PAC-3 Edge, its offering for the Army’s next Patriot interceptor. This missile can fly further and hit more capable targets than the current PAC-3 missile.

Lockheed plans to begin testing in 2027, ahead of first deployment in 2031. 

Demand for Lockheed’s missile franchise is not a problem. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have used up interceptors faster than anyone planned. 

Every cheap drone and every hypersonic missile creates demand for something that can stop it.

But, if you look at the stock, it seems like the market has forgotten what Lockheed does. 

Over the last few months, money has flowed into drone and autonomy names in defense tech, and the legacy primes got treated as yesterday’s warfare.

Lockheed’s forward P/E peaked near 22.6x in March. It’s now 16.5x, close to its low for the year.

That view misses half the picture. 

Autonomy changes how wars are fought, but it doesn’t reduce the need for missile defense. It raises it.

The Pentagon’s FY 2027 budget request includes more than $74 billion for drones and counter-drone technology, and counter-drone is Lockheed’s territory.

Revenue is expected to grow about 8% this year, and EPS nearly 42%. 

Look at the chart below. The blue line is forward EPS, now near $31, up from about $27 at the start of the year. The black line is the share price, down from around $680 at its peak to about $510.

Earnings rose while the price fell. That’s the gap we look for.

Cash sweetens the pot. Lockheed’s free cash flow yield is now 7.4%, its highest in five years.

It uses the cash to pay a 2.65% dividend yield with a 50% payout ratio, and buybacks add another 1.5%. That’s about 4% a year returned to shareholders, from a company whose biggest customer is the US government. 

The Bear Case?

The Future Interceptor program is still a competition, and Lockheed could lose it. 

Moreover, Lockheed’s balance sheet carries more debt than peers, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.34. 

Still, the setup is hard to ignore. 

You get the world’s largest defense contractor, with rising earnings, a five-year-high free cash flow yield and a missile defense franchise in more demand than ever, at 16.5x forward earnings.

We bought LMT this Friday. 

You can now view Lumida Curations at the Lumida Invest App. Curated insights delivered on time. Download the app here.

AWS CEO Matt Garman argues that AI agents use the cloud in ways it was never designed for: spinning up databases they discard minutes later, creating resources at unprecedented speed, and needing new building blocks like compute sandboxes and their own permissions model, separate from people and services.

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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon argues that government debt is the real problem. His fix is faster economic growth through permitting reform, deregulation, education and better policy, since even 1% more growth can improve debt-to-GDP without more spending.

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Kevin Mandia argues that traditional penetration testing only scans for known vulnerabilities, while AI-based attacks learn the infrastructure, hunt for logic flaws in custom applications and try every route. He expects AI defense to become a must-buy, much like first-generation antivirus.

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